Future Global River Ice in CMIP6 Models under Climate Change

IF 2.6 3区地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI:10.1175/jamc-d-23-0208.1

Yu Lin, Haishen Lü, K. Lindenschmidt, Zhongbo Yu, Yonghua Zhu, Mingwen Liu, Tingxing Chen

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

River ice changes due to climate change significantly impact river hydrology, economies, and societies. This study employed the CMIP6 data and a river ice model to predict global river ice changes in response to climate change. Results indicate significant declines in global river ice due to global warming. With each 1°C increase in surface air temperature (SAT) in the future, river ice extent of ice-affected rivers decrease by 2.11 percentage points, and ice duration shorten by 8.4 days. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the long-term mean SAT is 1.2°C to 2.5°C higher than in the near-term. This leads to a 1.9 percentage points to 4.4 percentage points decrease in global river ice extent, a 6.8 to 15.1-day decrease in river ice duration, and ice-free rivers increasing by up to 4.02%. The SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts a warmer long-term mean SAT, leading to greater reductions in river ice. Geographically, river ice loss is most notable in North America, Europe, Siberia, and the Tibetan Plateau (TIB), particularly in peninsular, coastal, and mountainous regions due to the combined effects of initial temperatures and temperature increases. Overall, the E.Europe (EEU) shows the greatest loss of river ice on average. Monthly analyses show the most substantial decreases from October to June, indicating pronounced seasonal variability. This study provides valuable insights for addressing challenges related to river ice changes in high-latitude and high-elevation regions.

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气候变化下 CMIP6 模型中的未来全球河冰

气候变化导致的河冰变化会对河流水文、经济和社会产生重大影响。本研究利用 CMIP6 数据和河冰模型预测全球河冰在气候变化下的变化。结果表明，全球变暖导致全球河冰大幅减少。未来地表气温（SAT）每升高 1°C，受冰影响河流的结冰范围将减少 2.11 个百分点，结冰期将缩短 8.4 天。在 SSP2-4.5 情景下，长期平均 SAT 比近期高 1.2°C 至 2.5°C。这将导致全球河流结冰范围减少 1.9 个百分点到 4.4 个百分点，河流结冰期缩短 6.8 天到 15.1 天，无冰河流最多增加 4.02%。SSP5-8.5 情景预测长期平均 SAT 会变暖，导致河冰减少更多。从地理上看，由于初始气温和气温升高的综合影响，北美、欧洲、西伯利亚和青藏高原（TIB）的河冰减少最为显著，特别是在半岛、沿海和山区。总体而言，东欧（EEU）的平均河冰损失最大。月度分析表明，10 月至 6 月的降幅最大，显示出明显的季节性变化。这项研究为应对与高纬度和高海拔地区河冰变化有关的挑战提供了宝贵的见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

6.70%

发文量

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： The Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (JAMC) (ISSN: 1558-8424; eISSN: 1558-8432) publishes applied research on meteorology and climatology. Examples of meteorological research include topics such as weather modification, satellite meteorology, radar meteorology, boundary layer processes, physical meteorology, air pollution meteorology (including dispersion and chemical processes), agricultural and forest meteorology, mountain meteorology, and applied meteorological numerical models. Examples of climatological research include the use of climate information in impact assessments, dynamical and statistical downscaling, seasonal climate forecast applications and verification, climate risk and vulnerability, development of climate monitoring tools, and urban and local climates.