Divergences between EU Members on the Sustainability of Road Freight Transport

Abstract

The Europevan Union is highly dependent on energy. This paper analyses energy consumption in the transport sector, representing approximately 30% of total energy consumption. A particular focus will be placed on road freight transport, which accounts for 40% of total transport energy consumption, trying to contribute to its rationalization. The road freight transport volume (TKM: tonne-kilometres) vs. gross domestic product (GDP) ratio fell in 2010–2022 by an average of 17.6% in EU-27, meaning that there was decoupled growth. Germany is the country with the highest decoupling, nearly 36%. On the contrary, in Spain there is a coupling because the evolution of TKM and GDP was almost identical. The paper proposes possible relevant factors in road freight transport activity that may justify the discrepancies in values within EU member countries, showing the positive and negative impacts of the different variables studied. In addition, the SARIMA model is applied to forecast the evolution of relevant indicators of road transport in different countries.