A quantitative comparison of two different models of minefield transit

Mikel D Petty
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Abstract

Naval mines are used to cause damage and inflict casualties on ships and to deny access to mined areas. Two distinctly different Monte Carlo models of surface ships transiting minefields were implemented and compared. An analytic model represents mines abstractly as mine density within the minefield. It determines the probability of a ship encountering a mine as a ratio of the area of the ship’s track through the minefield, with width equal to the mines’ effective radius and the area of the minefield. A geometric model represents the ship’s track and the mines’ locations explicitly. It determines whether a ship encounters a mine using a calculation of the distance between a ship’s track and the mines’ locations. The two models’ results were quantitatively compared for multiple values of five experimental variables: minefield dimensions, mine density, mine placement method, ships per group, and ship transit procedure. Each model was executed for each combination of experimental variable values and their results were compared to determine whether the models produced comparable results. In addition, the effectiveness of two mine placement methods at disabling ships and two ship transit procedures at avoiding mines were also compared. All comparisons used statistical hypothesis tests.
两种不同雷场过境模式的定量比较
海军水雷用于对舰船造成破坏和伤亡,并阻止舰船进入雷区。对水面舰艇通过雷场的两种截然不同的蒙特卡罗模型进行了实施和比较。分析模型将水雷抽象地表示为雷区内的水雷密度。它将船只遇到水雷的概率确定为船只通过雷场的航迹面积与水雷有效半径和雷场面积之比。几何模型明确表示了船只的航迹和水雷的位置。它通过计算船只航迹与水雷位置之间的距离来确定船只是否遇到水雷。针对五个实验变量的多个值,对两种模型的结果进行了定量比较:雷区尺寸、水雷密度、水雷布设方法、每组船只和船只过境程序。对每个实验变量值的组合执行每个模型,并对其结果进行比较,以确定模型是否产生了可比较的结果。此外,还比较了两种水雷布设方法在使船只失能方面的效果,以及两种船只通过程序在避开水雷方面的效果。所有比较均采用统计假设检验。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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