Choosing to protect: Public support for flood defense over relocation in climate change adaptation

Jan Freihardt, Mark T. Buntaine, Thomas Bernauer
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Abstract

Policy makers worldwide face tough choices over how to prioritize public funding for adaptation to climate change. One particularly difficult choice is whether to opt for policies that promote relocation away from flood risks or infrastructure investments that protect against flooding. Local communities commonly prefer protective infrastructure, but it is less obvious that the general public will support this approach due to the growing costs. We study public opinion on these adaptation approaches using a choice experiment with nationally representative samples in the United States and Germany (n = 2,400 each). We asked participants to prioritize federal funding between two hypothetical, equally sized communities differing in their adaptation strategy, flood frequency, lives and economic assets at risk, economic vitality, geographic distance, and political orientation. In both countries, we find surprisingly strong support for protective infrastructure over relocation policies among the general public, even under conditions where relocation could be an attractive alternative for addressing the growing costs of protective infrastructure and rebuilding efforts.
选择保护:在适应气候变化方面,公众支持洪水防御而非迁移
全世界的政策制定者都面临着如何将公共资金优先用于适应气候变化的艰难抉择。一个特别困难的选择是,是选择促进远离洪水风险的搬迁政策,还是选择防止洪水的基础设施投资。地方社区通常更倾向于保护性基础设施,但由于成本不断增加,公众是否会支持这种方法就不那么明显了。我们在美国和德国各抽取了具有全国代表性的样本(n = 2,400),通过选择实验研究了公众对这些适应方法的看法。我们要求参与者在两个规模相当的假想社区之间优先考虑联邦资金,这两个社区在适应策略、洪水频率、面临风险的生命和经济资产、经济活力、地理距离和政治取向方面各不相同。我们发现,在这两个国家中,即使在搬迁可能是解决保护性基础设施和重建工作日益增长的成本的一个有吸引力的替代方案的条件下,普通民众也出人意料地强烈支持保护性基础设施而非搬迁政策。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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