The Great Amplifier? Climate Change, Irregular Migration, and the Missing Links in EU Responses

Abstract

This article examines the complex relationship between climate change and migration in Africa, with a specific focus on Senegal—a West African nation increasingly vulnerable to climate threats such as drought, rising sea levels, floods, and salinisation. As a significant origin country for irregular migration to the European Union (EU), Senegal presents a compelling case study to explore how extreme climatic conditions interact with other migration drivers. This article does not aim to quantify or measure the extent to which climatic factors and variability contributed to migration decisions. Instead, building on original empirical material, it seeks to map and explore how climate variability interacts with other migration drivers, either by amplifying them or acting in synergy with them, thereby offering a fresh perspective of the complex dynamics at play. Additionally, this article investigates the extent to which the EU addresses and integrates climate considerations into its policy responses to address migratory flows and people’s vulnerability in countries of origin. This analysis reveals that the integration of climate factors as an amplifier and a synergist is a ‘missing link’ in the EU approach in the case of Senegal, with significant implications in terms of the effectiveness and long-term sustainability of EU action.