An Analysis on Singapore's Business Cycle

Abstract

Gross Domestic Product (GDP), pivotal in gauging a nation's economic health, has been extensively studied since its conceptualization in the 20th century. Nevertheless, while much attention has been given to its measurement accuracy and immediate components, detrending components and cyclical analyses of GDP constituents, particularly for export-oriented economies like Singapore, remain notably sparse. This investigation delves into this lacuna, utilizing a 21-year dataset from the International Financial Statistics (IFS) and employing detrending methodologies. By contrasting the cyclical influences of consumption and investment on Singapore's GDP from 2000 to 2021, our research unveils the nuanced interplay between these GDP facets. Moreover, through statistical tools, such as standard deviation and correlation, relationships and variations within the data are both visualized and quantified. Consequently, this study not only augments our comprehension of Singapore's economic trajectory but also underscores the importance of expanding academic discussions to encapsulate underrepresented export-heavy economies. This exploration heralds a call for a more inclusive and comprehensive approach in global economic research.