Mega Project Impact on Urban Growth and Ecosystem Service

Abstract

Recent research and global events have been centered around the evaluation of land use and land cover changes (LULC) to forecast and estimate urban expansion and the value of ecosystem services (ESVs). Predicting the expansion of the vicinity areas to the Padma Multi-Purpose Bridge, the longest bridge in Bangladesh, was the primary objective of LULC modifications for this study. Utilizing remote sensing images, this study assesses the capability of an integrated method combining multi-layer perceptron-Markov chain analysis (MLP-MCA) and LULC change monitoring and prediction on the Padma Bridge, which connects three immediate upazilas in Bangladesh (Shariatpur, Louhajang, and Janjira). The official website of Ecosystem Services Valuation Database (ESVD) provides a global estimation of the ecosystem service value (ESV), which is subsequently used to assess the effects of LULC alterations on ESVs. Utilizing the CA-Markov technique to forecast future urban growth from 2030 to 2040, classifying and analyzing the trend of LULC change in the study area for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020, and calculating the monetary value of ecosystem service value over time, are the primary objectives of this research. As per the forecast, the built-up area is anticipated to increase by 7% in 2030 and 14% in 2040. The exponential growth of developed land has a paradoxical impact on the value of ecosystem services. A reduction of nearly 213.24 million USD/ha is anticipated in the ESVs for provision, regulation, culture, and support between 2020 and 2040. Long-term sustainable development cannot result from the unanticipated loss of ecosystem services, even if the construction of a bridge generates economic stability and attracts investments for the nation. By providing a trade-off between urban expansion and a decline in ecosystem services, this study can serve as a benchmark and foundation for improved management decision-making.