Effects of extreme stratospheric polar vortex events on near-surface wind gusts across Europe

Eduardo Utrabo-Carazo, Julia F. Lockwood, Robert J. H. Dunn, L. Minola, Enric Aguilar, C. Azorín-Molina
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Abstract

Extreme stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) events can influence winter tropospheric circulation for up to 60 days. Their impacts on air temperature have been extensively studied recently. However, there is a research gap in their effects on wind speeds and its extremes. This study aims to evaluate, for the first time, the impacts of such extreme SPV events on observed and modelled near-surface wind gusts across Europe. We have analysed wind gust data coming from: station-based observations (for the Iberian Peninsula and Scandinavia), the ERA5 reanalysis and the SEAS5 and GloSea6 seasonal forecasting systems. We assess their similarities in reproducing 4 parameters of their corresponding distributions: median, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis. For all these datasets, the results indicate that extreme positive SPV events are followed by negative wind gust anomalies in Southern Europe and positive in Northern Europe. Whereas, negative SPV events (such as Sudden Stratospheric Warmings) have positive wind gust anomalies in Southern Europe and negative in the north. A central region shows negligible wind gust anomalies in both cases. This highlights the ability of SPV as a predictor for short-medium-term forecasting of extreme wind events, which would have direct applications to many socioeconomic and environmental issues such as the estimation of wind power generation.
极端平流层极地涡旋事件对欧洲近地面阵风的影响
极端平流层极地涡旋(SPV)事件可影响冬季对流层环流长达 60 天。最近对它们对气温的影响进行了广泛研究。然而,在它们对风速及其极端风速的影响方面还存在研究空白。本研究旨在首次评估此类极端 SPV 事件对整个欧洲的观测和模拟近地面阵风的影响。我们分析了以下来源的阵风数据:观测站观测(伊比利亚半岛和斯堪的纳维亚半岛)、ERA5 再分析、SEAS5 和 GloSea6 季节预报系统。我们评估了它们在再现相应分布的 4 个参数方面的相似性:中位数、标准差、偏度和峰度。对于所有这些数据集,结果表明,在南欧,极端正 SPV 事件之后会出现负阵风异常,而在北欧则会出现正阵风异常。而负 SPV 事件(如平流层突然变暖)在南欧的阵风异常为正,在北欧为负。中部地区在这两种情况下的阵风异常都可以忽略不计。这凸显了 SPV 作为极端风事件中短期预测指标的能力,它将直接应用于许多社会经济和环境问题,如风力发电量的估算。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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