Hanna Park, Sang-Min Kim, Hyojeong Kwon, Dongju Kim, Youn-Jung Kim, Won Young Kim
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Study objective: Asystole is the most common initial rhythm in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) but indicates a low likelihood of neurologic recovery. This study aimed to develop a novel scoring system to be easily applied at the time of emergency department arrival for identifying favorable neurologic outcomes in OHCA survivors with an asystole rhythm.
Methods: This study is a secondary analysis based on a previously collected nationwide database, targeting nontraumatic adult OHCA patients aged ≥18 years with an asystole rhythm who achieved return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) between January 2016 and December 2020. The primary outcome was a favorable neurologic outcome defined as Cerebral Performance Categories scores of 1 or 2 at hospital discharge. A prediction model was developed through multivariable logistic regression analysis in a derivation cohort in the form of a scoring system (WBC-ASystole). The performance and calibration of the model were tested using an internal validation cohort.
Results: Among 19,803 OHCA patients with survival to hospital admission, 6,322 had asystole, and 285 (4.5%) achieved good neurologic outcomes. Factors associated with favorable outcomes included age, witness arrest, bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation, time from call to hospital arrival, and out-of-hospital ROSC achievement. The WBC-ASystole score, totaling 11 points, exhibited a predictive performance with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76 to 0.83) and 0.79 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.83) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. After categorizing patients into 3 groups based on probability for good neurologic outcomes, the sensitivity and specificity were as follows: 0.98 (95% CI 0.97 to 0.99) and 0.09 (95% CI 0.09 to 0.10) for the very low predicted probability group (WBC-ASystole ≤2), 0.85 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.89) and 0.54 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.55) for the low predicted probability group (WBC-ASystole 3 to 4), and 0.36 (95% CI 0.34 to 0.39) and 0.93 (95% CI 0.92 to 0.93) for fair predicted probability group (WBC-ASystole≥5), respectively.
Conclusions: Although external validation studies must be performed, among OHCA patients with asystole, the WBC-ASystole scoring system may identify those patients who are likely to have a favorable neurologic outcome.
期刊介绍:
Annals of Emergency Medicine, the official journal of the American College of Emergency Physicians, is an international, peer-reviewed journal dedicated to improving the quality of care by publishing the highest quality science for emergency medicine and related medical specialties. Annals publishes original research, clinical reports, opinion, and educational information related to the practice, teaching, and research of emergency medicine. In addition to general emergency medicine topics, Annals regularly publishes articles on out-of-hospital emergency medical services, pediatric emergency medicine, injury and disease prevention, health policy and ethics, disaster management, toxicology, and related topics.