Slip rates and locking depths of the southern Sumatran Fault Zone revealed by new campaign GPS observations

Abstract

Summary The Sumatran Fault Zone (SFZ) of the Indonesian island of Sumatra, which is broken up into 19 fault segments, accommodates much of the trench-parallel component of the oblique convergence between the Indo-Australian and Sunda plates. To understand the potential hazard of SFZ earthquakes to the local population, we investigate slip rates and locking depths of three SFZ segments in southern Sumatra using previously unpublished data from our Sumatran Fault Monitoring (SuMo) campaign Global Positioning System (GPS) network. We model the GPS data using a two-dimensional interseismic dislocation model optimized using a Bayesian approach. For the Musi segment of the SFZ, we find that slip rates ranging from 10 to 22 mm/year and locking depths from 1 to 20 km fit the data similarly well, suggesting a lack of resolution for the SuMo network in this segment. For the Manna and Kumering segments where the resolution is better, the estimated slip rates are 18 [12–22, 95 per cent confidence intervals] mm/year and 12 [9–15] mm/year, respectively, while the estimated locking depths are 29 [15–47] km and 5 [3–16] km, respectively. The deep locking depth estimated for the Manna segment can be explained by the large station gap in this segment. Considering the uncertainty, all the estimated slip rates from our study remains aligned with the SFZ's average slip rate of ∼15 mm/year, which was previously derived using updated geological slip rates and geodetic block modelling of the entire SFZ. Our results support the idea that the forearc sliver west of the SFZ behaves as a rigid microplate.