State of Art on Potato Production in South Asian Countries and their Yield Sustainability

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyse potato cultivation in South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries from 1961 to 2022, based entirely on secondary data from the Food and Agriculture Organization. By employing the ARIMA model, the research forecasts potato area and production up to 2030, with ARIMA (1, 1, 5) identified as the optimal model for both area and production in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan and China with a 95% accuracy level. By the year 2030, the projected potato area and production are expected to be 69,514.75 ha and 937,406.30 t in Afghanistan, 473,612.08 ha and 10,561,509.80 t in Bangladesh, 6,224,031.90 ha and 107,944,218.99 t in China, 2,447,779.92 ha and 61,310,173.10 t in India, 29,198.17 ha and 447,014.54 t in Myanmar, 220,857.06 ha and 3,885,372.21 t in Nepal, 464,614.77 ha and 10,154,642.65 t in Pakistan, and 4720.31 ha and 78,391.00 t in Sri Lanka. The trend analysis reveals non-linear patterns, with quadratic, exponential, and cubic trends standing out as the most suitable for depicting the series’ behaviour. The examination of instability levels showcases varying trends, with some countries experiencing a decrease while others show an increase. To ensure the long-term sustainability of potato cultivation, targeted strategies focusing on enhancing access to quality inputs, promoting efficient farming practices, and addressing volatility factors like market fluctuations and pest outbreaks are crucial. The study emphasizes the significance of monitoring and mitigating risks associated with potato cultivation to ensure stable and sustainable production. Sustainability is evaluated through the Sustainability Index, employing three methods, with the study highlighting the importance of maintaining productivity over an extended period. By providing insights into historical trends, volatility, and sustainability, this research offers a roadmap for well-informed judgement and calculated planning in the field of potato farming, ultimately contributing to food security and economic development in the SAARC region.