Zhuo Chen, Minghao Shao, Zihao Hu, Xin Gao, Jiaqiang Lei
{"title":"Potential distribution of Haloxylon ammodendron in Central Asia under climate change","authors":"Zhuo Chen, Minghao Shao, Zihao Hu, Xin Gao, Jiaqiang Lei","doi":"10.1007/s40333-024-0061-8","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Understanding the spatial distribution of plant species and their dynamic changes in arid areas is crucial for addressing the challenges posed by climate change. <i>Haloxylon ammodendron</i> shelterbelts are essential for the protection of plant resources and the control of desertification in Central Asia. Thus far, the potential suitable habitats of <i>H. ammodendron</i> in Central Asia are still uncertain in the future under global climate change conditions. This study utilised the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to combine the current distribution data of <i>H. ammodendron</i> with its growth-related data to analyze the potential distribution pattern of <i>H. ammodendron</i> across Central Asia. The results show that there are suitable habitats of <i>H. ammodendron</i> in the Aralkum Desert, northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, and the upstream of the Tarim River and western edge of the Taklimakan Desert in the Tarim Basin under the current climate conditions. The period from 2021 to 2040 is projected to undergo significant changes in the suitable habitat area of <i>H. ammodendron</i> in Central Asia, with a projected 15.0% decrease in the unsuitable habitat area. Inland areas farther from the ocean, such as the Caspian Sea and Aralkum Desert, will continue to experience a decrease in the suitable habitats of <i>H. ammodendron</i>. Regions exhibiting frequent fluctuations in the habitat suitability levels are primarily found along the axis stretching from Astana to Kazakhskiy Melkosopochnik in Kazakhstan. These regions can transition into suitable habitats under varying climate conditions, requiring the implementation of appropriate human intervention measures to prevent desertification. Future climate conditions are expected to cause an eastward shift in the geometric centre of the potential suitable habitats of <i>H. ammodendron</i>, with the extent of this shift amplifying alongside more greenhouse gas emissions. This study can provide theoretical support for the spatial configuration of <i>H. ammodendron</i> shelterbelts and desertification control in Central Asia, emphasising the importance of proactive measures to adapt to climate change in the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":49169,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Arid Land","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Arid Land","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-024-0061-8","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Understanding the spatial distribution of plant species and their dynamic changes in arid areas is crucial for addressing the challenges posed by climate change. Haloxylon ammodendron shelterbelts are essential for the protection of plant resources and the control of desertification in Central Asia. Thus far, the potential suitable habitats of H. ammodendron in Central Asia are still uncertain in the future under global climate change conditions. This study utilised the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to combine the current distribution data of H. ammodendron with its growth-related data to analyze the potential distribution pattern of H. ammodendron across Central Asia. The results show that there are suitable habitats of H. ammodendron in the Aralkum Desert, northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, and the upstream of the Tarim River and western edge of the Taklimakan Desert in the Tarim Basin under the current climate conditions. The period from 2021 to 2040 is projected to undergo significant changes in the suitable habitat area of H. ammodendron in Central Asia, with a projected 15.0% decrease in the unsuitable habitat area. Inland areas farther from the ocean, such as the Caspian Sea and Aralkum Desert, will continue to experience a decrease in the suitable habitats of H. ammodendron. Regions exhibiting frequent fluctuations in the habitat suitability levels are primarily found along the axis stretching from Astana to Kazakhskiy Melkosopochnik in Kazakhstan. These regions can transition into suitable habitats under varying climate conditions, requiring the implementation of appropriate human intervention measures to prevent desertification. Future climate conditions are expected to cause an eastward shift in the geometric centre of the potential suitable habitats of H. ammodendron, with the extent of this shift amplifying alongside more greenhouse gas emissions. This study can provide theoretical support for the spatial configuration of H. ammodendron shelterbelts and desertification control in Central Asia, emphasising the importance of proactive measures to adapt to climate change in the future.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Arid Land is an international peer-reviewed journal co-sponsored by Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Science Press. It aims to meet the needs of researchers, students and practitioners in sustainable development and eco-environmental management, focusing on the arid and semi-arid lands in Central Asia and the world at large.
The Journal covers such topics as the dynamics of natural resources (including water, soil and land, organism and climate), the security and sustainable development of natural resources, and the environment and the ecology in arid and semi-arid lands, especially in Central Asia. Coverage also includes interactions between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and lithosphere, and the relationship between these natural processes and human activities. Also discussed are patterns of geography, ecology and environment; ecological improvement and environmental protection; and regional responses and feedback mechanisms to global change. The Journal of Arid Land also presents reviews, brief communications, trends and book reviews of work on these topics.