Predicting key ectotherm population mortality in response to dynamic marine heatwaves: A Bayesian-enhanced thermal tolerance landscape approach

IF 4.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Functional Ecology Pub Date : 2024-07-21 DOI:10.1111/1365-2435.14620

Jahangir Vajedsamiei, Niklas Warlo, H. E. Markus Meier, Frank Melzner

引用次数: 0

Abstract

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预测关键外温动物种群在动态海洋热浪中的死亡率：贝叶斯增强热耐受景观方法

随着气候变化加剧热浪，量化外温动物种群的相关死亡率对于有效保护至关重要。热耐受景观（TTL）模型是一种有用的预测工具，它假定随着温度的升高，个体的存活时间呈指数递减。这一假设已通过对恒温实验数据的回归分析得到验证，主要集中在成体阶段的个体。然而，这种方法无法通过动态、真实的热浪事件数据直接验证模型，而且忽略了早期招募阶段的脆弱性。本研究旨在利用蓝贻贝（一种在温带海岸形成大量珊瑚礁的基础物种）作为模型生物来弥补这些不足。我们在实验室实验中监测了持续热浪（CHW）条件下贻贝（幼体和成体）的存活率，并在室外中型宇宙实验中模拟了动态热浪（DHW）情景。热浪过后，我们还评估了中观生态室内的招募率。在每个数据集上分别采用近似贝叶斯计算与序列蒙特卡洛（ABC-SMC）对 TTL 模型进行参数化。两个实验的参数分布相似，ABC-SMC 模型的预测结果与观测到的存活率下降结果非常吻合，从而验证了这些模型。相比之下，我们发现贝叶斯回归方法的预测性能较低。此外，我们的最佳拟合模型预测，在非致命性 DHW 体系中升温将增加对贻贝的亚致死效应。观察到的对繁殖阶段的影响更为明显，随着亚致死效应的增加，繁殖率呈指数衰减。我们的模型预测，在本世纪最温暖的五种夏季温度条件下，对成年贻贝的亚致死效应较小（4%），与之相对应的是招募率下降了 0%-32%。我们的研究扩大了TTL模型的验证范围，证明了波罗的海潮下贻贝对未来极端热浪的适应能力，并提供了一种预测热浪引起的种群死亡的方法，适用于其他物种和敏感系统。在期刊博客上免费阅读本文的通俗语言摘要。

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来源期刊

Functional Ecology 环境科学-生态学

CiteScore

9.00

自引率

1.90%

发文量

243

审稿时长

4 months

期刊介绍： Functional Ecology publishes high-impact papers that enable a mechanistic understanding of ecological pattern and process from the organismic to the ecosystem scale. Because of the multifaceted nature of this challenge, papers can be based on a wide range of approaches. Thus, manuscripts may vary from physiological, genetics, life-history, and behavioural perspectives for organismal studies to community and biogeochemical studies when the goal is to understand ecosystem and larger scale ecological phenomena. We believe that the diverse nature of our journal is a strength, not a weakness, and we are open-minded about the variety of data, research approaches and types of studies that we publish. Certain key areas will continue to be emphasized: studies that integrate genomics with ecology, studies that examine how key aspects of physiology (e.g., stress) impact the ecology of animals and plants, or vice versa, and how evolution shapes interactions among function and ecological traits. Ecology has increasingly moved towards the realization that organismal traits and activities are vital for understanding community dynamics and ecosystem processes, particularly in response to the rapid global changes occurring in earth’s environment, and Functional Ecology aims to publish such integrative papers.