Were fewer boys born in the United States during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic? A test of the Trivers–Willard hypothesis

Abstract

The Trivers–Willard hypothesis predicts that mammalian parents in poor environmental conditions will favor the offspring sex with more reliable chance of reproductive success, which in humans is females. Three months following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa, England, and Wales, there were significant decreases in the sex ratio at birth (SRB) (male births/total live births). We analyzed this ratio with a seasonal autoregressive moving average model, and a logistic regression, using nationwide natality data for all singleton births in the United States from 2015 to 2021 (n = 25,201,620 total births). We identified no significant change in the sex ratio in either analysis. Rather, we observed marked differences in the sex ratio by maternal characteristics of race/ethnicity, age, and education, with more vulnerable groups having lower sex ratios. These findings suggest the SRB may be an important marker of reproductive vulnerability for disadvantaged groups in the United States.