Predicting major adverse cardiac events using radiomics nomogram of pericoronary adipose tissue based on CCTA: A multi-center study

Abstract

Background

The evolution of coronary atherosclerotic heart disease (CAD) is intricately linked to alterations in the pericoronary adipose tissue (PCAT). In recent epochs, characteristics of the PCAT have progressively ascended as focal points of research in CAD risk stratification and individualized clinical decision-making. Harnessing radiomic methodologies allows for the meticulous extraction of imaging features from these adipose deposits. Coupled with machine learning paradigms, we endeavor to establish predictive models for the onset of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE).

Purpose

To appraise the predictive utility of radiomic features of PCAT derived from coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) in forecasting MACE.

Methods

We retrospectively incorporated data from 314 suspected or confirmed CAD patients admitted to our institution from June 2019 to December 2022. An additional cohort of 242 patients from two external institutions was encompassed for external validation. The endpoint under consideration was the occurrence of MACE after a 1-year follow-up. MACE was delineated as cardiovascular mortality, newly diagnosed myocardial infarction, hospitalization (or re-hospitalization) for heart failure, and coronary target vessel revascularization occurring more than 30 days post-CCTA examination. All enrolled patients underwent CCTA scanning. Radiomic features were meticulously extracted from the optimal diastolic phase axial slices of CCTA images. Feature reduction was achieved through a composite feature selection algorithm, laying the groundwork for the radiomic signature model. Both univariate and multivariate analyses were employed to assess clinical variables. A multifaceted logistic regression analysis facilitated the crafting of a clinical-radiological-radiomic combined model (or nomogram). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration, and decision curve analyses (DCA) were delineated, with the area under the ROC curve (AUCs) computed to gauge the predictive prowess of the clinical model, radiomic model, and the synthesized ensemble.

Results

A total of 12 radiomic features closely associated with MACE were identified to establish the radiomic model. Multivariate logistic regression results demonstrated that smoking, age, hypertension, and dyslipidemia were significantly correlated with MACE. In the integrated nomogram, which amalgamated clinical, imaging, and radiomic parameters, the diagnostic performance was as follows: 0.970 AUC, 0.949 accuracy (ACC), 0.833 sensitivity (SEN), 0.981 specificity (SPE), 0.926 positive predictive value (PPV), and 0.955 negative predictive value (NPV). The calibration curve indicated a commendable concordance of the nomogram, and the decision curve analysis underscored its superior clinical utility.

Conclusions

The integration of radiomic signatures from PCAT based on CCTA, clinical indices, and imaging parameters into a nomogram stands as a promising instrument for prognosticating MACE events.