Deep learning approach for predicting monsoon dynamics of regional climate zones of India

Abstract

The complex interplay of various complicated meteorological and oceanic processes has made it more difficult to accurately predict Indian monsoon rainfall. A future-oriented and one of the most potential methods for predictive analytics is deep learning. The proposed work exploits empirical Mode Decomposition-Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (EMD-DFA) and long short-term memory (LSTM) deep neural networks (EMD-LSTM) to build novel predictive models and analyze predictability effectively. The time series data of each homogeneous monsoon zone are decomposed into different empirical time series components known as intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). The proposed work's obtained results report that the EMD-LSTM hybrid strategy consistently outperforms other methods in terms of accuracy. Furthermore, we examined possible relationships between each homogeneous monsoon zone and multiple climate drivers, shedding light on the complicated relationships that influence monsoon patterns. This study presents a unique way of predicting complex monsoon rainfall in homogenous regions of India and marks the first application of the EMD-LSTM technique for this purpose to the best of our knowledge which is necessary for improving water conservation and distribution at different climate zones of India.