Severe compound events of low wind and cold temperature for the British power system

Abstract

Britain's power system has shifted towards a major contribution from wind energy. However, wind is highly variable, and exceptionally low wind events can simultaneously occur with cold conditions, which increase demand. These conditions can pose a threat for the security of energy supply. Here we use bias-corrected wind supply data and the estimated temperature-related part of demand to analyse events of potential weather-related energy shortfall based on the historic meteorological record. We conduct sensitivity studies with varying scenarios of Britain's total wind energy capacity and the temperature sensitivity of national demand. These scenarios are estimates for present-day conditions as well as potential future changes of the power system. We apply a new methodology to estimate the potential severity of an event for the power system, and analyse the atmospheric conditions associated with the most severe events. We find that events of potentially severe shortfall are relatively rare and short-lived, and often occur with an atmospheric pattern broadly resembling a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. This broad tendency emerges from a wide range of individual daily weather patterns that cause cold and still conditions. With an increase in wind capacity, it is likely that severe events will become rarer, although the most severe days of the record are relatively insensitive to changes in wind supply and temperature sensitivity of demand under our assumptions.