A Probabilistic Approach for Predicting Vessel Motion

Abstract

Dear Editor, This letter addresses the challenge of forecasting the motion of real-world vessels over an extended period with a limited amount of available data. By employing stochastic differential equation (SDE) modeling, we integrate both deterministic and stochastic components of the available information. Subsequently, we establish a recursive prediction methodology based on Bayes' rule to update the model state when new measurements are received. Furthermore, we develop a stochastic model tailored specifically to vessel dynamics and introduce an approximation method to tackle computational complexities. Finally, we present an application example and conduct a comparative experiment to validate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.