Recurrent neural network for the dynamics of Zika virus spreading.

Abstract

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), a type of machine learning technique, have recently drawn a lot of interest in numerous fields, including epidemiology. Implementing public health interventions in the field of epidemiology depends on efficient modeling and outbreak prediction. Because RNNs can capture sequential dependencies in data, they have become highly effective tools in this field. In this paper, the use of RNNs in epidemic modeling is examined, with a focus on the extent to which they can handle the inherent temporal dynamics in the spread of diseases. The mathematical representation of epidemics requires taking time-dependent variables into account, such as the rate at which infections spread and the long-term effects of interventions. The goal of this study is to use an intelligent computing solution based on RNNs to provide numerical performances and interpretations for the SEIR nonlinear system based on the propagation of the Zika virus (SEIRS-PZV) model. The four patient dynamics, namely susceptible patients S(y), exposed patients admitted in a hospital E(y), the fraction of infective individuals I(y), and recovered patients R(y), are represented by the epidemic version of the nonlinear system, or the SEIR model. SEIRS-PZV is represented by ordinary differential equations (ODEs), which are then solved by the Adams method using the Mathematica software to generate a dataset. The dataset was used as an output for the RNN to train the model and examine results such as regressions, correlations, error histograms, etc. For RNN, we used 100% to train the model with 15 hidden layers and a delay of 2 seconds. The input for the RNN is a time series sequence from 0 to 5, with a step size of 0.05. In the end, we compared the approximated solution with the exact solution by plotting them on the same graph and generating the absolute error plot for each of the 4 cases of SEIRS-PZV. Predictions made by the model appeared to be become more accurate when the mean squared error (MSE) decreased. An increased fit to the observed data was suggested by this decrease in the MSE, which suggested that the variance between the model's predicted values and the actual values was dropping. A minimal absolute error almost equal to zero was obtained, which further supports the usefulness of the suggested strategy. A small absolute error shows the degree to which the model's predictions matches the ground truth values, thus indicating the level of accuracy and precision for the model's output.