Pandemic tail risk

IF 3.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Banking & Finance Pub Date : 2024-07-11 DOI:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107257

Matthijs Breugem , Raffaele Corvino , Roberto Marfè , Lorenzo Schönleber

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper studies the measurement of forward-looking tail risk in US equity markets around the COVID-19 outbreak. We document that financial markets are informative about how pandemic risk has spread in the economy in advance of the actual outbreak. While the tail risk of the market index did not respond before the outbreak, investors identified less pandemic-resilient economic sectors whose tail risk boomed in advance of both the market drawdown and the implementation of social distancing provisions. This pattern is consistent across different methodologies for measuring forward-looking tail risk, using option contracts, and across various horizons.

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大流行病尾部风险

本文研究了 COVID-19 爆发前后美国股市的前瞻性尾部风险测量。我们发现，在疫情实际爆发之前，金融市场就能提供有关大流行病风险如何在经济中扩散的信息。虽然市场指数的尾部风险在疫情爆发前没有反应，但投资者发现了抗大流行病能力较弱的经济部门，这些部门的尾部风险在市场缩减和社会疏远条款实施之前就已激增。这种模式在使用期权合约衡量前瞻性尾部风险的不同方法和不同期限中都是一致的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Banking & Finance Multiple-

CiteScore

6.40

自引率

5.40%

发文量

262

期刊介绍： The Journal of Banking and Finance (JBF) publishes theoretical and empirical research papers spanning all the major research fields in finance and banking. The aim of the Journal of Banking and Finance is to provide an outlet for the increasing flow of scholarly research concerning financial institutions and the money and capital markets within which they function. The Journal''s emphasis is on theoretical developments and their implementation, empirical, applied, and policy-oriented research in banking and other domestic and international financial institutions and markets. The Journal''s purpose is to improve communications between, and within, the academic and other research communities and policymakers and operational decision makers at financial institutions - private and public, national and international, and their regulators. The Journal is one of the largest Finance journals, with approximately 1500 new submissions per year, mainly in the following areas: Asset Management; Asset Pricing; Banking (Efficiency, Regulation, Risk Management, Solvency); Behavioural Finance; Capital Structure; Corporate Finance; Corporate Governance; Derivative Pricing and Hedging; Distribution Forecasting with Financial Applications; Entrepreneurial Finance; Empirical Finance; Financial Economics; Financial Markets (Alternative, Bonds, Currency, Commodity, Derivatives, Equity, Energy, Real Estate); FinTech; Fund Management; General Equilibrium Models; High-Frequency Trading; Intermediation; International Finance; Hedge Funds; Investments; Liquidity; Market Efficiency; Market Microstructure; Mergers and Acquisitions; Networks; Performance Analysis; Political Risk; Portfolio Optimization; Regulation of Financial Markets and Institutions; Risk Management and Analysis; Systemic Risk; Term Structure Models; Venture Capital.