Introducing a ‘Postharvest Loss Index (PHLI)’ for Some Selected High Producing Vegetables in Sri Lanka to Enhance Food Security

Abstract

Developing a Postharvest Loss Index (PHLI) is important for filling the data gap to obtain an idea that real economic loss (quantity x price) occurs due to postharvest losses in the country and to take measures for enhancing food security. Estimating PHLI for agricultural commodities is a novel concept. Thus, in this study, PHLI for bean, carrot, leeks and beetroot was developed on monthly basis at the Dambulla Economic Center (DEC), the focal point in the fruits and vegetable value chain in Sri Lanka. Data were collected on the daily postharvest losses and the prices at the DEC during the period of October 2015 to March 2017. Moreover, SARIMA under time series analysis was employed to forecast future PHLI values for each vegetable. According to the results during the months where there was a decreasing trend in the supply of vegetables to the market, the PHLI was relatively low, and when the supply was high, it showed an increasing trend in the PHLI. The forecasted PHLI values for the beans for the next three months are 74.73, 61.31, and 61.71, while for the carrots forecasted values are 112.03, 81.28, and 47.67. Further, the forecasted values for the leeks are 271.33, 194.19 and 174.97, whereas for the beet PHLI values for the next three months are 177.78, 208.15, and 231.90. As the PHLI of the selected crops has shown a seasonal fluctuation with a pattern, it can be used as the base value to forecast the postharvest loss of a particular crop to enhance food security.