Exchange Policy and Misalignments in Morocco: A Quantitative Analysis

International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI:10.32479/ijefi.16209

Pascal Pouya, Mohamed Karim, Anass Arbia, Mohammed El Yazidi, Khalid Sobhi

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The research examines the equilibrium exchange rate and misalignment quantifications for the case of Morocco over the period 1990-2022. Based on an econometric model developed by Edwards in 1994, fundamental variables such as productivity, foreign direct investment (FDI), inflation and the real interest rate (RIR) are analysed to estimate the equilibrium value of the real exchange rate (REER) of the Moroccan dirham. The results show a cointegration between the REER and the fundamental variables, indicating the existence of a long-term relationship. The analysis of misalignments reveals periods of overvaluation and undervaluation of the Moroccan dirham, influenced by economic factors and monetary policies. This study has important implications for economic and monetary policy in Morocco, particularly with regard to export competitiveness and macroeconomic stability.

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摩洛哥的外汇政策与失调：定量分析

本研究探讨了 1990-2022 年期间摩洛哥的均衡汇率和失调量化问题。根据爱德华兹于 1994 年建立的计量经济学模型，对生产力、外国直接投资、通货膨胀和实际利率等基本变量进行了分析，以估算摩洛哥迪拉姆实际汇率的均衡值。结果显示，实际汇率与基本变量之间存在协整关系，表明两者之间存在长期关系。对失调的分析表明，受经济因素和货币政策的影响，摩洛哥迪拉姆曾出现过高估和低估的时期。这项研究对摩洛哥的经济和货币政策具有重要影响，特别是在出口竞争力和宏观经济稳定方面。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues

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