Uncertainty Degradation Model for Initiating Explosive Devices Based on Uncertain Differential Equations

Abstract

The performance degradation of initiating explosive devices is influenced by various internal and external factors, leading to uncertainties in their reliability and lifetime predictions. This paper proposes an uncertain degradation model based on uncertain differential equations, utilizing the Liu process to characterize the volatility in degradation rates. The ignition delay time is selected as the primary performance parameter, and the uncertain distributions, expected values and confidence intervals are derived for the model. Moment estimation techniques are employed to estimate the unknown parameters within the model. A real data analysis of ignition delay times under accelerated storage conditions demonstrates the practical applicability of the proposed method.