Assessment of the Prospective Potential for the Export of Russian Gas under the Influence of Modern Challenges

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of the prospective potential of Russian gas exports in the context of the current scale of the implementation of strategic threats to Russia’s energy security in the future until 2035, taking into account existing and emerging external and internal challenges. The main modern factors influencing the directions of transformation of these threats, as well as the scale of their implementation are assessed. The possibilities of all energy sectors of Russia for the supply of primary energy resources to the domestic market are analyzed. It is shown that until 2035 the country’s internal needs for primary fuel and energy resources will be met with an acceptable margin. However, given the current and expected scale of the transformation of threats to energy security, there are fears that already beyond 2030 there will be a decrease in technical capabilities to ensure even the “truncated” volumes of natural gas exports due to international sanctions.