Factors affecting the probability of employment of officially registered unemployed

Abstract

The article examines the factors influencing the duration of registered unemployment and the probability of employment after it. Such an analysis is important for determining the target direction of active and passive state labor market policies and transitioning to evidence-based policy implementation. The empirical basis of the study consists of impersonal microdata on the characteristics of citizens officially considered as unemployed and the services they received in 2017—2019. We assess the probability of exit and the duration of staying in registered unemployment using survival analysis methods (Cox proportional hazards models and Kaplan—Meier survival function). Our results showed that higher education together with high qualification level of women and belonging to the group of skilled workers of men, increased the likelihood of transition from registered unemployment to permanent work. Women with low education and qualification levels living in rural areas move faster into temporary employment. The research findings are relevant for developing policies aimed at increasing the efficiency of employment centers especially those providing services toward rural unemployed.