THE RISK THRESHOLD LEVEL JUSTIFICATION METHOD OF THE CRISIS SITUATIONS IN ORDER TO PREVENT ARMED AGGRESSION

Abstract

The risk threshold level method of the crisis situations justification to prevent armed aggression against targeted state (with elements of artificial intelligence technology) has been developed, that ensures the integrated risks of crisis situations threshold levels determination. The method is based on the expert assessment and forecasting technologies and allows to track the dynamics of growth of destructive risks factors of negative trends in the development of the security environment and preventive response to the processes of ensuring the national security of the State in its defining areas by reducing the risks of the most dangerous negative trends that can provoke crisis situations in the targeted State. It is noted that since the target State has limited resources allocated to ensure national security, it makes no sense to fully consider all the identified negative trends (not all of them are aimed at the use of military force). Therefore, the method provides for the establishment of two threshold (critical) levels for each negative trend. The first level is the level of fixing the integral risk (if the negative trend has two or more destructive factors), upon reaching that the national security system organizes detailed monitoring of such a trend. The second level is the threshold level of of a crisis situation risk, at which crisis management is engaged in the system of ensuring national security. Practical implementation of the developed method will ensure a faster response to the risks of certain destructive factors for national security, which will make it possible to increase the efficiency of national security management under conditions of limited resources and expand preventive response to a wider range of negative trends in the geopolitical and military-political situation in the regions where targeted State's national interests are realized.