Predicted Trajectory Accuracy Requirements to Reduce Aviation Impact of Space Launch Operations

Q2 Social Sciences
L. A. Weitz, Timothy J. Gruber, Nicholas E. Rozen
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Thousands of aircraft flight plans are affected by space launch and reentry operations each year, increasing the distances flown, causing flight delays, and increasing air traffic controllers workload. Due to regulations and procedures, predefined Aircraft Hazard Areas (AHAs) are used to protect aircraft from the risks of space launch and reentry debris, thus constraining the available airspace for other airspace users. While disruptive, there is no less impactful approach at present that adequately protects the flying public. In this paper, we explore the application of trajectory-based operations to evaluate the impact of an AHA on commercial aircraft, with the aim of reducing the number of flights that must be rerouted or rescheduled. This approach relies on precise trajectory predictions to the AHA boundary to determine which flights are expected to clear the AHA before its activation or remain clear of the AHA until after its deactivation. This paper derives the required predicted trajectory accuracy for air traffic automation systems to effectively predict flights impacted by an AHA. The required accuracy is derived based on a model for managing flights relative to the AHA using speed changes alone (as opposed to reroutes or holding) in the context of operational uncertainties like departure time delays and flight characteristics. Additionally, we derived a model to relate scheduling buffers to the AHA activation time, delivery accuracy at the AHA boundary, and AHA violation probability.
降低航天发射作业对航空影响的轨迹预测精度要求
每年有数以千计的飞机飞行计划受到航天发射和重返大气层作业的影响,从而增加了飞行距离,导致航班延误,并增加了空中交通管制员的工作量。根据相关规定和程序,预先确定的飞机危险区(AHA)用于保护飞机免受太空发射和重返碎片的风险,从而限制了其他空域用户的可用空域。虽然具有破坏性,但目前没有影响较小的方法可以充分保护飞行公众。在本文中,我们探讨了如何应用基于轨迹的操作来评估 AHA 对商用飞机的影响,目的是减少必须改变航线或重新安排时间的航班数量。这种方法依赖于对 AHA 边界的精确轨迹预测,以确定哪些航班有望在 AHA 启用前避开 AHA,或在 AHA 停用前一直避开 AHA。本文得出了空中交通自动化系统有效预测受 AHA 影响的航班所需的预测轨迹精度。所需的精确度是在离港时间延迟和航班特性等运行不确定性的背景下,根据仅使用速度变化(而非改道或保持)来管理相对于 AHA 的航班的模型得出的。此外,我们还推导出一个模型,用于将调度缓冲区与 AHA 激活时间、AHA 边界的交付准确性以及 AHA 违反概率联系起来。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Journal of Air Transportation
Journal of Air Transportation Social Sciences-Safety Research
CiteScore
2.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
16
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