On the acceptance of high carbon taxes in low- and middle-income countries: a conjoint survey experiment

D. Malerba, Babette Never, L. Fesenfeld, Hanna Fuhrmann-Riebel, Sascha Kuhn
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Abstract

Changing consumption patterns from growing middle-classes with consequent rising energy use and emissions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) present key challenges for the energy transition and climate change mitigation. Carbon taxes are an effective policy instrument to counter these developments, yet concerns about low public acceptability hinder their introduction. Here, we seek to fill a research gap and identify publicly acceptable carbon tax designs in LMICs. We provide novel evidence from three conjoint experiments with 2,700 middle-class respondents in Ghana, Peru, and the Philippines. We show that overall, the majority in all three countries supports even high taxes of USD-PPP 75/tCO2 per year, irrespective of specific policy design features. The support for a very high tax rate is especially high if revenues are recycled for environmental purposes. Thus, governments in LMICs have political leeway to finance the transition to a low-carbon economy via carbon taxes. Moreover, revenue recycling for the poorest receives high support from important subgroups. These insights are crucial to achieving an effective, acceptable, and just carbon tax policy design.
中低收入国家对高碳税的接受程度:联合调查实验
在中低收入国家(LMICs),不断增长的中产阶级改变了消费模式,随之而来的是能源使用量和排放量的增加,这给能源转型和减缓气候变化带来了重大挑战。碳税是应对这些发展的有效政策工具,但公众对其接受度低的担忧阻碍了碳税的引入。在此,我们试图填补研究空白,确定低收入和中等收入国家公众可接受的碳税设计。我们通过对加纳、秘鲁和菲律宾的 2700 名中产阶级受访者进行三次联合实验,提供了新的证据。我们的研究表明,总体而言,无论具体的政策设计特点如何,这三个国家的大多数人都支持每年 75 美元/吨二氧化碳的高税率。如果将收入用于环保目的,对高税率的支持率尤其高。因此,低收入和中等收入国家的政府在通过碳税为向低碳经济转型提供资金方面具有政治余地。此外,对最贫困人口的税收回收也得到了重要群体的大力支持。这些见解对于实现有效、可接受和公正的碳税政策设计至关重要。
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