Peruvian North Coast Climate Variability and Regional Ocean–Atmosphere Forcing

Abstract

This study analyses climate variability on the north coast of Peru to understand how the local weather is coupled with anomalous ocean conditions. Using high-resolution satellite reanalysis, statistical outcomes are generated via composite analysis and point-to-field regression. Daily time series data for 1979–2023 for Moche area (8S, 79W) river discharge, rainfall, wind, sea surface temperature (SST) and potential evaporation are evaluated for departures from the average. During dry weather in early summer, the southeast Pacific anticyclone expands, an equatorward longshore wind jet ~10 m/s accelerates off northern Peru, and the equatorial trough retreats to 10N. However, most late summers exhibit increased river discharge as local sea temperatures climb above 27 °C, accompanied by 0.5 m/s poleward currents and low salinity. The wet spell composite featured an atmospheric zonal overturning circulation comprised of lower easterly and upper westerly winds > 3 m/s that bring humid air from the Amazon. Convection is aided by diurnal heating and sea breezes that increase the likelihood of rainfall ~ 1 mm/h near sunset. Wet spells in March 2023 were analyzed for synoptic weather forcing and the advection of warm seawater from Ecuador. Although statistical correlations with Moche River discharge indicate a broad zone of equatorial Pacific ENSO forcing (Nino3 R~0.5), the long-range forecast skill is rather modest for February–March rainfall (R2 < 0.2).