The evolution of the 2021 Seacor Power Tragedy in Coastal Louisiana

Abstract

On 13 April 2021, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) swept across the southeastern Louisiana coast, capsizing the 39-m Seacor Power roughly 7 km from shore and leaving 13 mariners drowned or missing. In addition to the severe straight-line winds that sank the vessel, sustained surface winds >20 m s−1 behind the leading convection persisted well after the main convective band, inhibiting search and rescue efforts. Though complete historical fatality statistics are unavailable, the 13 deaths associated with this event likely represent one of the deadliest severe convective weather events in modern U.S. maritime history. This analysis integrates in-situ, remotely sensed, and reanalysis datasets to reconstruct the 2021 Seacor Power accident as well as ascertain its depiction in day-of operational convection-allowing model (CAM) guidance. Results suggest that the MCS formed along an unanalyzed coastal boundary and developed a strong meso-high to the east of the wreck as it moved offshore. The resulting zonally oriented pressure gradient directed stiff easterly winds over the wreck for several hours, even as the squall line had propagated well away from the coast. This multi-hour period of severe weather along the Louisiana coast was relatively well resolved by morning-of CAM guidance, providing optimism that future such events may be anticipated with the lead times required by vulnerable sea craft to reach safe harbor. Future severe convective weather watches containing marine zones might include a “marine” section detailing the potential sea conditions, analogous to the “aviation” section in current severe weather watches.