Carbon Reduction Potential of Flexible Energy Use for Air Conditioning Considering Uncertainty: A Case Study

Abstract

Flexible air conditioning energy use, leveraging building thermal inertia and thermal energy storage, can effectively reduce building carbon emissions. The carbon reduction potential of flexible energy use in air conditioning is influenced by uncertainties, such as dynamic electricity carbon emission factors. To accurately quantify this potential, a methodology for calculating the carbon reduction achievable through flexible energy use in air conditioning, considering these uncertainties, is proposed. First, the sources of uncertainty in air conditioning energy use are identified and mathematically described. Next, the relationship between uncertainty, load, and carbon emissions is analyzed. Subsequently, the carbon reduction mechanisms of various flexible air conditioning energy use methods, based on building thermal inertia and energy storage, are, respectively, explained, and corresponding mathematical models are established. Finally, a case study is conducted to verify the feasibility of the method and reveal the characteristics of the carbon reduction potential of various flexible energy use methods, considering uncertainty.