Evolution and prediction of rural ecological environment quality in eastern coastal area of China

Chao Ying, Yifan Li, Yuxin Chen, Jie Zhong, Shunyi Ai, Peng Tian, Qiyu Huang, Luodan Cao, Abdul M. Mouazen
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Abstract

Introduction: Rural ecological environment construction, as a pivotal component of the rural revitalization strategy and ecological civilization construction strategy, plays an indispensable role in promoting sustainable agricultural development and safeguarding ecological security. An accurate assessment and prediction of Rural Ecological Environment Quality (REEQ) serves as the theoretical basis to achieving these goals, and provide scientific guidance for future rural ecological environment construction and planning. The field of regional ecology, proposed in the mid-20th century, represents an emerging interdisciplinary domain that integrates ecology, geography, and economics. It plays a pivotal role in addressing large-scale ecological challenges and fostering social sustainability. As global urbanization continues to advance, urban ecological environments undergo significant transformations under the pressures of intense human activities. Scholars have increasingly focused on the essence, evolutionary patterns, and causal mechanisms shaping urban ecological environment quality. Consequently, ecological environment assessments have evolved from singular pollution evaluations to comprehensive ecological appraisals. However, coastal rural area with complex geographical conditions and fragile ecological environments are often neglected and marginalized. Currently, there are few specialized evaluation systems for REEQ, making it difficult to accurately reveal the evolution pattern of rural ecological environment. This weakens its guidance on practical rural ecological environment governance and restoration.Methods: The Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model can simplify the identification process of driving factors for REEQ, reflect the feedback mechanism between indicators, and is conducive to scientific and accurate evaluation of REEQ. Therefore, we constructed an evaluation index system for REEQ based on the PSR. We measured REEQ in the eastern coastal area of China, analyzed its spatiotemporal characteristics and development trends, and used the obstacle degree model to identify obstacle factors. It is beneficial for rural areas to grasp the evolution laws of REEQ, provide theoretical basis for the formulation of sustainable development policies, and provide scientific policy recommendations.Results: Our findings indicate that: 1) From 2000 to 2020, REEQ in the eastern coastal area of China has continuously improved, with the index value increasing from 0.454 to 0.525, a total growth of 15.64%. The number of high-level REEQ areas increased from 0 to 29, showing a positive development trend. 2) High-density areas of REEQ in the eastern coastal area of China are concentrated in the northern parts of Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces. The center of REEQ has shifted from the southwest to the northeast. 3) The obstacle degrees of various criteria layers in REEQ are relatively stable, with the response subsystem being the highest, followed by the state and pressure subsystems. Forest coverage, per capita grain production, effective irrigation rate of farmland, afforestation area in the current year, per capita disposable income of rural residents, and per capita mechanical power of farmers are the main obstacle indicators. 4) From 2020 to 2035, REEQ in the eastern coastal area of China will continue to improve. The standard deviation ellipse will move towards the northwest, the center will shift from the southwest to the northeast, the rotation angle will slowly decrease, showing a northwestward trend.
中国东部沿海地区农村生态环境质量演变与预测
引言农村生态环境建设作为乡村振兴战略和生态文明建设战略的重要组成部分,在促进农业可持续发展和保障生态安全方面发挥着不可或缺的作用。准确评估和预测农村生态环境质量(REEQ)是实现上述目标的理论基础,也为未来农村生态环境建设和规划提供科学指导。区域生态学提出于 20 世纪中期,是集生态学、地理学和经济学于一体的新兴交叉学科。它在应对大规模生态挑战、促进社会可持续发展方面发挥着举足轻重的作用。随着全球城市化进程的不断推进,城市生态环境在激烈的人类活动压力下发生了重大变化。越来越多的学者开始关注城市生态环境质量的本质、演化模式和因果机制。因此,生态环境评价已从单一的污染评价发展到综合的生态评价。然而,地理条件复杂、生态环境脆弱的沿海农村地区往往被忽视和边缘化。目前,专门的农村生态环境质量评价体系较少,难以准确揭示农村生态环境的演变规律。方法:压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型可以简化 REEQ 驱动因子的识别过程,反映指标间的反馈机制,有利于科学、准确地评价 REEQ。因此,我们构建了基于 PSR 的 REEQ 评价指标体系。我们对中国东部沿海地区的 REEQ 进行了测算,分析了其时空特征和发展趋势,并利用障碍度模型识别了障碍因素。这有利于农村地区把握 REEQ 的演变规律,为制定可持续发展政策提供理论依据和科学的政策建议:研究结果表明1)从 2000 年到 2020 年,中国东部沿海地区的 REEQ 不断提高,指数值从 0.454 提高到 0.525,共增长了 15.64%。高等级 REEQ 区域数量从 0 增加到 29 个,呈现出良好的发展态势。2) 中国东部沿海地区的 REEQ 高密度区主要集中在广东和浙江两省的北部地区。REEQ 的中心从西南向东北转移。3) REEQ 各标准层的障碍度相对稳定,其中响应子系统的障碍度最高,其次是状态和压力子系统。森林覆盖率、人均粮食产量、农田有效灌溉率、当年造林面积、农村居民人均可支配收入、农民人均机械动力是主要障碍指标。4) 2020-2035 年,中国东部沿海地区 REEQ 将继续改善。标准偏差椭圆将向西北方向移动,中心将由西南向东北移动,旋转角度将缓慢减小,呈西北走向。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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