Risks and coping strategies in the floodplain economic belt amid drought–flood challenges and climate change

Abstract

In this study, a coupla risk combinations and coping strategies have been developed for confronting conflicts between population–economy development and water resource management (PEWM) due to population–industry transformation (PIT) into a floodplain of the economic belt under climate change. A location-entropy-based PVAR (Panel Vector Autoregression) model coupla-risk analysis (LPCR) can be introduced into PEWM to reflect the adverse effects of population–industry transformation on a special function area (e.g., floodplain) of the economic belt, where the coupla risk map has been addressed. Meanwhile, an adaptive scenario analysis-based stochastic–fuzzy method (ASSF) can be joined to deal with multiple uncertainties and their interactions due to subjective and artificial factors. The proposed LPCR and ASSF can be integrated into a risk-based stochastic–fuzzy scenario method framework (RASF) to apply for a practical PEWM case study of the Yongding River floodplain in the context of the coordinative development of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei economic belt, China. The results can be presented as follows: 1) the PIT was accelerated into the floodplain due to the fact that it can require more water resources, where each additional unit can promote the regional gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.019 units, increasing the water demand by 0.046 units. It can strengthen various risks such as water shortage, soil loss, and flood control investment in a floodplain of the economic belt; 2) the farmland returning to wetland (CFW) can decrease the water demand and shortage ratio (would be 0% at highest) for irrigation in the long run, but this would reduce the direct economic income of irrigation in the short run; 3) backward irrigative schemes and low water utilization efficiency require a cleaner production mode, which could reduce water shortages by 77.23 × 10^3 m3 at the highest; and 4) the combined policy (S12) can reduce coupla risks (including the risk of water shortage, soil loss, and flood) compared to other individual policies (S2, S4, S6, and S8). The findings can assist local decision-makers to gain insights into adjusting interegional strategies not only for remitting population–resource stress in core cities but also for improving the resilience against drought and flood in a floodplain area, which is conducive of the special function of the floodplain to support an integrated sustainable development of the economic belt.