Risks and coping strategies in the floodplain economic belt amid drought–flood challenges and climate change

He Dong, Xianjuan An, Xueting Zeng, Tienan Li, Yun Teng, Xinyu Zhang, Shupan Li
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Abstract

In this study, a coupla risk combinations and coping strategies have been developed for confronting conflicts between population–economy development and water resource management (PEWM) due to population–industry transformation (PIT) into a floodplain of the economic belt under climate change. A location-entropy-based PVAR (Panel Vector Autoregression) model coupla-risk analysis (LPCR) can be introduced into PEWM to reflect the adverse effects of population–industry transformation on a special function area (e.g., floodplain) of the economic belt, where the coupla risk map has been addressed. Meanwhile, an adaptive scenario analysis-based stochastic–fuzzy method (ASSF) can be joined to deal with multiple uncertainties and their interactions due to subjective and artificial factors. The proposed LPCR and ASSF can be integrated into a risk-based stochastic–fuzzy scenario method framework (RASF) to apply for a practical PEWM case study of the Yongding River floodplain in the context of the coordinative development of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei economic belt, China. The results can be presented as follows: 1) the PIT was accelerated into the floodplain due to the fact that it can require more water resources, where each additional unit can promote the regional gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.019 units, increasing the water demand by 0.046 units. It can strengthen various risks such as water shortage, soil loss, and flood control investment in a floodplain of the economic belt; 2) the farmland returning to wetland (CFW) can decrease the water demand and shortage ratio (would be 0% at highest) for irrigation in the long run, but this would reduce the direct economic income of irrigation in the short run; 3) backward irrigative schemes and low water utilization efficiency require a cleaner production mode, which could reduce water shortages by 77.23 × 10^3 m3 at the highest; and 4) the combined policy (S12) can reduce coupla risks (including the risk of water shortage, soil loss, and flood) compared to other individual policies (S2, S4, S6, and S8). The findings can assist local decision-makers to gain insights into adjusting interegional strategies not only for remitting population–resource stress in core cities but also for improving the resilience against drought and flood in a floodplain area, which is conducive of the special function of the floodplain to support an integrated sustainable development of the economic belt.
洪泛区经济带在旱涝挑战和气候变化中的风险和应对策略
本研究针对气候变化下经济带洪泛区人口-产业转型(PIT)导致的人口-经济发展与水资源管理(PEWM)之间的矛盾,提出了耦合风险组合和应对策略。将基于位置熵的 PVAR(面板向量自回归)模型耦合风险分析(LPCR)引入 PEWM,可反映人口产业转型对经济带特殊功能区(如洪泛区)的不利影响,耦合风险图已在此得到解决。同时,还可加入基于自适应情景分析的随机模糊方法(ASSF),以处理主观和人为因素导致的多种不确定性及其相互作用。将所提出的 LPCR 和 ASSF 集成到基于风险的随机-模糊情景方法框架(RASF)中,应用于中国京津冀经济带协调发展背景下永定河洪泛区的实际 PEWM 案例研究。研究结果如下1)PIT 加速进入洪泛区的原因是其可能需要更多的水资源,每增加一个单位可促进地区国内生产总值(GDP)增加 0.019 个单位,需水量增加 0.046 个单位。2) 退耕还湿(CFW)可降低长期灌溉需水量和缺水率(最高为 0%),但短期内会减少灌溉的直接经济收入;3) 落后的灌溉方案和较低的水利用效率要求采用清洁生产模式,可减少缺水 77.23 × 10^3 m3;4)与其他单项政策(S2、S4、S6 和 S8)相比,综合政策(S12)可降低多种风险(包括缺水风险、土壤流失风险和洪水风险)。这些研究结果有助于地方决策者深入了解如何调整区域间战略,不仅能缓解核心城市的人口资源压力,还能提高洪泛区的抗旱防洪能力,有利于发挥洪泛区的特殊功能,支持经济带的综合可持续发展。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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