Heat extremes linearly shift with global warming, with frequency doubling per decade since 1979

R. Vautard, Clair R. Barnes, S. Philip, S. Kew, Izidine Pinto, Friederike E. L. Otto
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Abstract

Heat extremes have been increasing both in frequency and in intensity in most land regions of the world, and this increase has been attributed to human activities. In the last decade, many outstanding and record shattering heat extremes have occurred worldwide, triggering fears of a nonlinear behaviour or an “acceleration” in the development of heat conditions, considering the warming level when the event occurred. Here we show that the evolution of yearly temperature maxima, with return periods above 10 years, consistently shifts with global temperatures and does not significantly depart from this behaviour in recent years or decades when considered globally or at the scale of continents. This result is obtained by using a classical statistical event attribution technique, where the assumption that the distribution of block-maxima extremes linearly shifts with global warming is tested across years and world land regions. However, the pace of frequency change is large, with the probability of heat extremes exponentially rising and nearly doubling every decade since 1979, particularly when considering events with a return period of about 10 to 50 years in 2000. This makes the climate of a decade ago unrepresentative of today’s climate. Our results overall mean that we do not expect events like the recent outstanding extremes to undergo nonlinear changes, despite fast changes. They also show that assumptions underlying attribution techniques used in many recent studies are consistent with recent temperature trends.
极端热量随全球变暖呈线性变化,自 1979 年以来,每十年的频率增加一倍
在世界上大多数陆地地区,极端高温的频率和强度都在增加,而这种增加被归咎于人类活动。在过去的十年中,全球发生了许多破纪录的高温极端事件,考虑到事件发生时的气候变暖水平,这引发了人们对非线性行为或高温条件 "加速 "发展的担忧。在这里,我们展示了重现期在 10 年以上的年度最高气温的演变与全球气温的变化一致,并且在最近几年或几十年中,从全球或各大洲的尺度来看,并没有明显偏离这一行为。这一结果是通过使用经典的统计事件归因技术得出的,该技术在不同年份和世界陆地区域测试了 "块-最大极值分布随全球变暖线性移动 "这一假设。然而,频率变化的速度很大,自 1979 年以来,热极端事件的概率呈指数上升,每十年几乎翻一番,特别是考虑到 2000 年发生的重现期约为 10 至 50 年的事件。这使得十年前的气候无法代表今天的气候。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,尽管变化很快,但我们并不指望像最近的极端天气这样的事件会发生非线性变化。这些结果还表明,最近许多研究中使用的归因技术的基本假设与最近的气温趋势是一致的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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