Modelling Multi-Scenario Ecological Network Patterns and Dynamic Spatial Conservation Priorities in Mining Areas

Land Pub Date : 2024-07-16 DOI:10.3390/land13071065

Wanqiu Zhang, Zeru Jiang, Huayang Dai, Gang Lin, Kun Liu, Ruiwen Yan, Yuanhao Zhu

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Abstract

Mining activities have significantly altered the land use patterns of mining areas, exacerbated the degree of landscape fragmentation, and thereby led to the loss of biodiversity. Ecological networks have been recognized as an essential component for enhancing habitat connectivity and protecting biodiversity. However, existing studies lack dynamic analysis at the landscape scale under multiple future scenarios for mining areas, which is adverse to the identification of ecological conservation regions. This study used the MOP-PLUS (multi-objective optimization problem and patch-level land use simulation) model to simulate the land use patterns in the balance of ecology and economy (EEB) scenario and ecological development priority (EDP) scenario for the Shendong coal base. Then, climate change and land use patterns were integrated into ecosystem models to analyze the dynamic changes in the ecological networks. Finally, the conservation priorities were constructed, and dynamic conservation hotspots were identified using landscape mapping methods. The following results were obtained: (1) From 2000 to 2020, large grassland areas were replaced by mining areas, while cultivated land was replenished. By 2030, the forest and grassland areas (967.00 km2, 8989.70 km2) will reach their peaks and the coal mine area (356.15 km2) will reach its nadir in the EDP scenario. (2) The fragmentation of ecological sources intensified (MPS decreased from 19.81 km2 to 18.68 km2) and ecological connectivity declined (in particular, α decreased by 6.58%) from 2000 to 2020. In 2030, the connectivity in the EDP scenario will increase, while the connectivity in the EEB scenario will be close to that of 2020. (3) The central and southeastern parts of the Shendong coal base have higher conservation priorities, which urgently need to be strengthened. This study offers guidance on addressing the challenges of habitat and biodiversity conservation in mining areas.

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矿区多情景生态网络模式和动态空间保护优先事项建模

采矿活动极大地改变了矿区的土地利用模式，加剧了景观破碎化程度，从而导致生物多样性的丧失。生态网络已被视为加强生境连通性和保护生物多样性的重要组成部分。然而，现有研究缺乏对矿区多种未来情景下景观尺度的动态分析，不利于确定生态保护区域。本研究利用 MOP-PLUS（多目标优化问题和斑块级土地利用模拟）模型模拟了神东煤炭基地生态与经济平衡（EEB）情景和生态优先发展（EDP）情景下的土地利用模式。然后，将气候变化和土地利用模式纳入生态系统模型，分析生态网络的动态变化。最后，构建了保护优先级，并利用景观制图方法确定了动态保护热点。结果如下：(1) 从 2000 年到 2020 年，大片草地被矿区取代，耕地得到补充。到 2030 年，在 EDP 情景下，森林和草原面积（967.00 平方公里、8989.70 平方公里）将达到顶峰，煤矿面积（356.15 平方公里）将达到低谷。(2）从 2000 年到 2020 年，生态源破碎化加剧（MPS 从 19.81 km2 下降到 18.68 km2），生态连通性下降（特别是 α 下降了 6.58%）。2030 年，EDP 情景下的连通性将增加，而 EEB 情景下的连通性将接近 2020 年的水平。(3) 神东煤炭基地中部和东南部的保护重点更高，急需加强。本研究为应对矿区生境和生物多样性保护的挑战提供了指导。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Land

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