The fire weather in Europe: large-scale trends towards higher danger

Jessica Hetzer, M. Forrest, Jaime Ribalaygua, Carlos Prado-López, T. Hickler
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Abstract

The climate over Europe has been recorded to be hotter, drier, and more fire-prone over the last decade than ever before, leading to concerns about how climate change will alter fire weather in the future. A typical measure to estimate fire weather severity based on climate is the Canadian fire weather index (FWI). In this study, we used high-resolution, bias-corrected climate model output (∼9 km) from six CMIP6 climate models and four shared socio-economic pathway projections (SSPs) to calculate consistent and comparable daily FWI datasets for Europe from 1950 to 2080. Our study aims to identify regional and large-scale shifts in fire weather severity and its predictability over time to support adaptive planning. We show that irrespective of the future SSP, fire weather will become more severe, but the increase is much stronger under high greenhouse gas emissions. This leads to new areas being exposed to severe fire weather, such as central Europe and rapidly warming mountainous areas. Already fire-prone regions in southern Europe will experience more extreme conditions. We conclude that only the low-emission SSP1-2.6 pathway can prevent strong increases in fire weather beyond the 2050s. Fire surveillance and management will become more important, even in areas and in seasons where they have not been in the focus so far.
欧洲的火灾天气:大范围的高危险趋势
据记录,过去十年欧洲的气候比以往任何时候都更热、更干、更容易发生火灾,这引起了人们对气候变化将如何改变未来火灾天气的担忧。加拿大火灾天气指数(FWI)是根据气候估计火灾天气严重程度的典型措施。在这项研究中,我们使用了来自六个 CMIP6 气候模型和四个共享社会经济路径预测(SSPs)的高分辨率、偏差校正气候模型输出(∼9 km)来计算欧洲从 1950 年到 2080 年一致且可比较的每日火险天气指数数据集。我们的研究旨在确定火灾天气严重程度及其可预测性随时间发生的区域性和大规模变化,以支持适应性规划。我们的研究表明,无论未来的 SSP 如何变化,火灾天气都将变得更加严重,但在温室气体排放量高的情况下,火灾天气的严重程度会更高。这将导致新的地区面临严重的火灾天气,如欧洲中部和迅速变暖的山区。欧洲南部已经很容易发生火灾的地区将经历更极端的情况。我们的结论是,只有低排放的 SSP1-2.6 途径才能防止 2050 年代以后火灾天气的剧增。火灾监控和管理将变得更加重要,甚至在迄今为止尚未受到关注的地区和季节也是如此。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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