Modeling and Analysis of Risk Propagation and Loss Causing Capacity for Key Nodes in Cyber-Physical Coupled Power Network

Abstract

The modern power system has evolved into a cyber-physical system with deep coupling of physical and information domains, which brings new security risks. Aiming at the problem that the “information-physical” cross-domain attacks with key nodes as springboards seriously threaten the safe and stable operation of power grids, a risk propagation model considering key nodes of power communication coupling networks is proposed to study the risk propagation characteristics of malicious attacks on key nodes and the impact on the system. First, combined with the complex network theory, a topological model of the power communication coupling network is established, and the key nodes of the coupling network are screened out by Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method under the comprehensive evaluation index based on topological characteristics and physical characteristics. Second, a risk propagation model is established for malicious attacks on key nodes to study its propagation characteristics and analyze the state changes of each node in the coupled network. Then, two loss-causing factors: the minimum load loss ratio and transmission delay factor are constructed to quantify the impact of risk propagation on the coupled network. Finally, simulation analysis based on the IEEE 39-node system shows that the probability of node being breached $(\alpha)$ and the security tolerance of the system $(\beta)$ are the key factors affecting the risk propagation characteristics of the coupled network, as well as the criticality of the node is positively correlated with the damage-causing factor. The proposed methodological model can provide an effective exploration of the diffusion of security risks in control systems on a macro level.