Will BRT ridership return after the COVID-19 pandemic? An analysis for Colombia

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in drastic changes in people’s living habits. The lockdown, social distancing measures, and the fear of contagion severely impacted the demand for public transportation services. Due to the decline in demand during the pandemic, the financial crisis of the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems in Colombia, similar to other Latin American countries, worsened. This article aims to analyze the pandemic’s impact on Colombia’s seven existing BRT systems by assessing users’ willingness to use the service in a post-pandemic scenario. Data come from an online survey (N = 1,486) in mid-2021, which was used to estimate a hybrid model that assesses future BRT usage intention. Results confirmed that the pandemic had a profound impact on mobility behavior, with a shift away from mass public transportation such as BRT or bus and a substantial increase in the use of single transportation modes, which include cars, motorcycles, cycling, and walking. Intention to continue using BRT service after the pandemic varies between cities and people’s socioeconomic characteristics (i.e. occupation, income, transportation expenditure, and private vehicle ownership). Willingness to use BRT is also influenced by latent variables, including perceptions of contagion risks, service quality before and during the pandemic, and perception of prevention measures implementation. When the virus takes a back seat, the BRT demand is not expected to reach pre-pandemic levels.