Model of predicting fear of cancer recurrence in patients with digestive tract cancer: A cross-sectional study.

Abstract

Aims: To investigate the incidence of fear of cancer recurrence in patients with digestive tract cancers analyse its influencing factors, and further establish a visual risk prediction model.

Design: A cross-sectional study.

Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 570 patients with digestive tract tumours admitted to a local hospital, from May 2023 to December 2023 by convenient sampling method. Univariate analysis and logistic analysis were performed on the influencing factors, and the risk prediction nomogram model of fear of cancer recurrence in patients with digestive tract cancer was constructed by using R 4.1.3 software. ROC curve was used to evaluate the differentiation of the nomogram model. The calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test were used to evaluate the consistency of the model. This study was reported using the TRIPOD checklist.

Results: In this study, 272 (47.7%) patients developed fear of recurrence. The risk prediction model of recurrence fear column chart for digestive tract cancer patients incorporated six variables of gender, therapy, alimentary tract haemorrhage, pain, depression and social support. The C-statistic was (.976), and the calibration curve showed that the predicted probability was more in line with the actual probability of occurrence, and the decision curve showed that the predictive model had better practicality.

Conclusion: The column-line diagram prediction model constructed in this study is effective and facilitates timely intervention and management by healthcare professionals based on their risk factors.

Impact: Nomogram is helpful to calculate the risk probability of FCR in patients with digestive tract cancer, identify FCR patients in time, and formulate comprehensive and personalized countermeasures, to provide a good quality of life and prolong the survival cycle of patients with digestive tract cancer.

Patient or public contribution: Participants were hospitalized patients or patients with digestive tract cancer undergoing follow-up. First of all, before the investigation and research, a team is formed to discuss the concept, research purpose, method, significance, etc., and determine the research tools. Second, by reasonably explaining the study to patients to seek informed consent from the patient and sign it, patients filled in the questionnaire independently. For patients with low education levels who could not fill in the questionnaire, the team members made objective explanations to help them choose reasonable options.