A Simple Prognostic Scoring System for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with DEB-TACE

Abstract

Objective: To develop a simple and effective prognostic scoring system to predict the efficacy of drug-eluting bead-transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (DEB-TACE) in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).
Methods: Data were retrospectively collected from 230 patients with HCC who received DEB-TACE treatment at six medical centers between January 2019 and December 2022. We developed a predictive score based on independent risk factors for overall survival (OS), validated the model using a validation cohort, and compared its prognostic accuracy with commonly used HCC staging systems.
Results: The number of tumors, albumin-bilirubin levels, alpha-fetoprotein levels, and portal vein thrombus grade were identified as independent factors influencing OS. Based on these factors, we established the DEB-TACE treatment of HCC (DTH) scoring system. The DTH score correlated well with OS, which decreased as the DTH score increased. According to the DTH score, patients were categorized into three risk groups: low-risk (DTH-A, 0– 4 points), medium-risk (DTH-B, 5– 6 points), and high-risk (DTH-A, 7 points). The OS of each risk group was 18.73± 0.62 months, 12.73± 0.10 months, and 6.93± 0.19 months, respectively (p< 0.001). The external cohort validation confirmed the accuracy of the DTH score, demonstrating superior predictive performance compared to other commonly used HCC scoring systems.
Conclusion: The DTH-HCC scoring system effectively predicts the outcomes of HCC patients undergoing DEB-TACE as initial treatment. This model can aid in the initial planning and decision-making process for DEB-TACE treatment in HCC patients.

Keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma, transcatheter arterial chemoembolization, prognosis prediction model