Climate change and Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) in North America: modelling possible changes in range with different climate scenarios and interspecific interactions

IF 0.6 4区 生物学 Q4 FISHERIES
Cassandra K. Bommersbach, Gabrielle Grenier, Haley Gendron, Les N. Harris, M. Yamin Janjua, Nicholas E. Mandrak, Ross F. Tallman
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

One of the greatest challenges for researchers today is understanding climate-change impacts on fish populations, particularly in vulnerable and understudied ecosystems such as the Canadian Arctic. Among other impacts, northern fishes will undergo thermal stress as atmospheric and sea surface temperatures are projected to rise globally. Models that consider how both environmental factors such as temperature and potential species interactions will impact population extirpation and species’ range contraction can help project the future distribution of a species in the face of a warming climate. Here, we investigate the climate-change impacts of rising temperatures and the potential northward distributional shift of brook charr (Salvelinus fontinalis) on Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus), Canada’s northernmost freshwater fish species. Specifically, we used a logistic regression model to establish baseline relationships between the current distribution of Arctic charr and the variables, degree-days (a key climate variable), geographical location, and brook charr occurrence. We developed the model applying the expected changes in degree-days to 2050 (25–50% increase from the average of 1976–2005) and 2080 (50–100% increase) while incorporating the historical distribution of Arctic charr to estimate the change in Arctic charr distribution over that time. We found that growing degree-days, longitude, latitude, and brook charr occurrences correctly classified 93% of Arctic charr historical occurrences in Canada. We estimate that in a high-carbon scenario, where degree-days are expected to increase by 50 to 100%, Arctic charr range is projected to decrease by 18% in Canada by 2051–2080 and decrease even further by 3% with the presence of brook charr. The Canadian high Arctic may provide refuge for Arctic charr, likely maintaining temperatures optimal for species persistence. Regardless, management that considers the climate stresses on Arctic charr populations will be important to preserve this highly valued resource that is pivotal for food security and traditional ways of life for northerners.

Abstract Image

气候变化与北美洲北极鲑(Salvelinus alpinus):模拟不同气候情景和种间相互作用对分布区可能造成的变化
当今研究人员面临的最大挑战之一是了解气候变化对鱼类种群的影响,尤其是在加拿大北极地区等脆弱和研究不足的生态系统中。除其他影响外,由于预计全球大气温度和海面温度都将上升,北方鱼类将承受热应力。考虑温度等环境因素和潜在的物种相互作用将如何影响种群灭绝和物种分布范围缩小的模型,有助于预测物种在气候变暖情况下的未来分布。在这里,我们研究了气温升高对气候变化的影响,以及溪鲑鱼(Salvelinus fontinalis)分布北移对加拿大最北部淡水鱼种北极鲑鱼(Salvelinus alpinus)的潜在影响。具体来说,我们利用逻辑回归模型建立了北极红点鲑目前的分布与度日(一个关键的气候变量)、地理位置和溪红点鲑发生率等变量之间的基线关系。我们根据 2050 年(比 1976-2005 年的平均值增加 25%-50%)和 2080 年(增加 50%-100%)度日的预期变化建立了模型,同时结合北极红点鲑的历史分布情况来估计北极红点鲑在这段时间内的分布变化。我们发现,生长度日、经度、纬度和溪鲑的出现正确地分类了加拿大 93% 的北极鲑历史出现情况。我们估计,在高碳情景下,度日预计会增加 50% 到 100%,到 2051-2080 年,北极红点鲑在加拿大的分布范围预计会减少 18%,如果出现溪红点鲑,则会进一步减少 3%。加拿大北极高纬度地区可能会为北极红点鲑提供避难所,从而保持物种生存所需的最佳温度。无论如何,考虑到气候对北极红点鲑种群的压力的管理对于保护这种对北方人的食品安全和传统生活方式至关重要的高价值资源非常重要。
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来源期刊
Ichthyological Research
Ichthyological Research 生物-动物学
CiteScore
2.80
自引率
16.70%
发文量
48
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Ichthyological Research is an official journal of the Ichthyological Society of Japan and is published quarterly in January, April, July, and November. Ichthyological Research primarily publishes research papers on original work, either descriptive or experimental, that advances the understanding of the diversity of fishes. Ichthyological Research strives to cover all aspects of fish biology, including taxonomy, systematics, evolution, biogeography, ecology, ethology, genetics, morphology, and physiology.
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