Global Greenhouse Gas Reconciliation 2022

Abstract

Abstract. In this study, we provide an update of the methodology and data used by Deng et al. (2022) to compare the national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) and atmospheric inversion model ensembles contributed by international research teams coordinated by the Global Carbon Project. The comparison framework uses transparent processing of the net ecosystem exchange fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO₂) from inversions to provide estimates of terrestrial carbon stock changes over managed land that can be used to evaluate NGHGIs. For methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O), we separate anthropogenic emissions from natural sources based directly on the inversion results, to make them compatible with NGHGIs. Our global harmonized NGHGIs database was updated with inventory data until February 2023 by compiling data from periodical UNFCCC inventories by Annex I countries and sporadic and less detailed emissions reports by non-Annex I countries given by National Communications and Biennial Update Reports. For the inversion data, we used an ensemble of 22 global inversions produced for the most recent assessments of the global budgets of CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O coordinated by the Global Carbon Project with ancillary data. The CO₂ inversion ensemble in this study goes through 2021, building on our previous report from 1990 to 2019, and includes three new satellite inversions compared to the previous study, and an improved managed land mask. As a result, although significant differences exist between the CO₂ inversion estimates, both satellite and in-situ inversions over managed lands indicate that Russia and Canada had a larger land carbon sink in recent years than reported in their NGHGIs, while the NGHGIs reported a significant upward trend of carbon sink in Russia but a downward trend in Canada. For CH₄ and N₂O, the results of the new inversion ensembles are extended to 2020. Rapid increases in anthropogenic CH4 emissions were observed in developing countries, with varying levels of agreement between NGHGIs and inversion results, while developed countries showed a slow declining or stable trend in emissions. Much denser sampling and higher atmospheric CO₂ and CH₄ concentrations by different satellites, are expected in the coming years. The methodology proposed here to compare inversion results with NGHGIs can be applied regularly for monitoring the effectiveness of mitigation policy and progress by countries to meet the objective of their pledges. The dataset constructed for this study is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10841716 (Deng et al., 2024).