Towards spatial predictions of disease transmission risk: classical scrapie spill-over from domestic small ruminants to wild cervids

Abstract

Abstract. Spatial epidemiology tools play a critical role in effectively allocating resources to curb the spread of animal diseases. This study focuses on classical scrapie (CS), an animal prion disease identified in Portugal, which infects small ruminant flocks and has been shown to be experimentally transmissible to wild cervids. Utilising remote sensing technologies and semi-automatic classification models, we aimed to evaluate the risk of interspecies prion transmission from domestic small ruminants to wild cervids (hosts). To achieve this, we gathered data related to hosts and infected small ruminant flocks. Furthermore, we collected and processed freely available, medium-resolution satellite imagery to derive vegetative and biophysical spectral indices capable of representing the primary habitat features. By employing a pixel-based species distribution model, we integrated the compiled geographical distribution data and spectral data with five supervised classification algorithms (random forest, classification tree analysis, artificial neural network, generalised linear model, and generalised additive model). The consensus map allowed accurate predictions of spatialised regions exhibiting spectral characteristics similar to where CS and its hosts were initially identified. By overlapping suitable territories for disease and host occurrence, we created a spatially explicit tool that assesses the risk of prion spill-over from domestic small ruminants to wild cervids. The described methodology is highly replicable and freely accessible, thus emphasising its practical utility. This study underscores the substantial contribution of model-based spatial analysis to disease monitoring and lays the groundwork for defining populations at risk and implementing targeted control and prevention strategies, thus safeguarding both animal and public health.