Analyzing the Potential of the Southern Corridor in Competition with China-Europe Freight Transport Corridors Using Multi-Criteria Decision-Making

Abstract

The Southern Corridor within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), traversing Iran, signifies a potential link between China and Europe. Although not yet operational, it’s poised for competition with its well-established counterparts: the Trans-Siberian, Middle, and Traditional Maritime Corridors. This study evaluates the competitiveness of the Southern Corridor compared to these rivals, with a noteworthy focus on the Southern and Middle Corridors, which have not previously undergone quantitative evaluation alongside the Trans-Siberian and Traditional Maritime Corridors. The methodology is grounded in Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM). The study initiates by identifying factors that influence the performance of freight transit corridors, determining their relative importance through consultation with a panel of experts. Precise weights of these factors are calculated using the Fuzzy Delphi Analytical Hierarchy Process (FDAHP). Subsequently, the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is applied to assess the relative performance of the four corridors. Additionally, scenario planning, with a specific emphasis on the Southern Corridor, is conducted. The results reveal that the Traditional Maritime Corridor secures the top position with an impressive performance index of 0.7203. The Trans-Siberian, Middle, and Southern Corridors follow as the second, third, and fourth-ranked options, with performance indices of 0.4056, 0.2864, and 0.2662, respectively. Furthermore, the scenario planning outcomes demonstrate the significant potential for performance improvement in the Southern Corridor, particularly through enhanced geopolitical stability and the elimination of intermodal operations. These measures are pivotal in enhancing the competitiveness of the Southern Corridor, positioning it favorably against the Trans-Siberian Corridor.