Ranking handball teams from statistical strength estimation

IF 1 4区数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

Computational Statistics Pub Date : 2024-06-24 DOI:10.1007/s00180-024-01522-0

Florian Felice

引用次数: 0

Abstract

In this work, we present a methodology to estimate the strength of handball teams. We propose the use of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution to model the number of goals scored by a team as a flexible discrete distribution which can handle situations of non equi-dispersion. From its parameters, we derive a mathematical formula to determine the strength of a team. We propose a ranking based on the estimated strengths to compare teams across different championships. Applied to female handball club data from European competitions over the 2022/2023 season, we show that our new proposed ranking can have an echo in real sports events and is linked to recent results from European competitions.

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根据统计实力估算手球队排名

在这项工作中，我们提出了一种估算手球队实力的方法。我们建议使用康威-麦克斯韦-泊松分布（Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution）来模拟球队的进球数，这是一种灵活的离散分布，可以处理非等离散的情况。根据其参数，我们推导出一个数学公式来确定一支球队的实力。我们提出了一种基于估计实力的排名方法，用于比较不同锦标赛的参赛队伍。我们将其应用于 2022/2023 赛季欧洲赛事的女子手球俱乐部数据，结果表明，我们提出的新排名可以在实际体育赛事中产生反响，并与欧洲赛事的最新结果相关联。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Computational Statistics 数学-统计学与概率论

CiteScore

2.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

122

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Computational Statistics (CompStat) is an international journal which promotes the publication of applications and methodological research in the field of Computational Statistics. The focus of papers in CompStat is on the contribution to and influence of computing on statistics and vice versa. The journal provides a forum for computer scientists, mathematicians, and statisticians in a variety of fields of statistics such as biometrics, econometrics, data analysis, graphics, simulation, algorithms, knowledge based systems, and Bayesian computing. CompStat publishes hardware, software plus package reports.