Ecological niche modeling for the prediction of suitable environments for Chrysodeixis chalcites (Noctuidae) in the contiguous United States

Abstract

The golden twin-spot moth, Chrysodeixis chalcites Esper (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), is a polyphagous, polyvoltine crop pest occurring natively from northern Europe to Mediterranean Africa and the Canary Islands. Larvae feed on a wide variety of naturally occurring plants as well as soybean and other legume crops, short staple cotton, tomato, potato, peppers, tobacco, and banana. Chrysodeixis chalcites has been recorded in agricultural lands in the Ontario peninsula in eastern Canada and in northern counties of Indiana, USA. Given the strong potential for C. chalcites to invade USA crop lands, it is important to identify environments most likely to sustain growing populations of this pest. Though C. chalcites is native to Europe and North Africa, it has invaded sub-Saharan Africa. Using occurrence data form the native and invaded ranges, and environmental predictors including bioclimatic conditions and human disturbance, we trained three ecological niche models to estimate an ensemble prediction of environmental suitability in the contiguous US. Because human impact is potentially a confounding predictor, models were trained both with and without it. High environmental suitability was projected for the Atlantic coast from New England to Florida, the Gulf coast, the lower Midwest, and the Pacific coast and Central Valley of California.