Decision-Tree Models Indicative of Microvascular Invasion on MRI Predict Survival in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Following Tumor Ablation

Abstract

Purpose: Histological microvascular invasion (MVI) is a risk factor for poor survival and early recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after surgery. Its prognostic value in the setting of locoregional therapies (LRT), where no tissue samples are obtained, remains unknown. This study aims to establish CT-derived indices indicative of MVI on liver MRI with superior soft tissue contrast and evaluate their association with patient survival after ablation via interstitial brachytherapy (iBT) versus iBT combined with prior conventional transarterial chemoembolization (cTACE).
Patients and Methods: Ninety-five consecutive patients, who underwent ablation via iBT alone (n = 47) or combined with cTACE (n = 48), were retrospectively included between 01/2016 and 12/2017. All patients received contrast-enhanced MRI prior to LRT. Overall (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and time-to-progression (TTP) were assessed. Decision-tree models to determine Radiogenomic Venous Invasion (RVI) and Two-Trait Predictor of Venous Invasion (TTPVI) on baseline MRI were established, validated on an external test set (TCGA-LIHC), and applied in the study cohorts to investigate their prognostic value for patient survival. Statistics included Fisher’s exact and t-test, Kaplan–Meier and cox-regression analysis, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and Pearson’s correlation.
Results: OS, PFS, and TTP were similar in both treatment groups. In the external dataset, RVI showed low sensitivity but relatively high specificity (AUC-ROC = 0.53), and TTPVI high sensitivity but only low specificity (AUC-ROC = 0.61) for histological MVI. In patients following iBT alone, positive RVI and TTPVI traits were associated with poorer OS (RVI: p < 0.01; TTPVI: p = 0.08), PFS (p = 0.04; p = 0.04), and TTP (p = 0.14; p = 0.03), respectively. However, when patients with combined cTACE and iBT were stratified by RVI or TTPVI, no differences in OS (p = 0.75; p = 0.55), PFS (p = 0.70; p = 0.43), or TTP (p = 0.33; p = 0.27) were observed.
Conclusion: The study underscores the role of non-invasive imaging biomarkers indicative of MVI to identify patients, who would potentially benefit from embolotherapy via cTACE prior to ablation rather than ablation alone.

Keywords: cancer imaging, hepatocellular carcinoma, microvascular invasion, magnetic resonance tomography, predictive imaging biomarkers