Determining Domain of Machine Learning Models using Kernel Density Estimates: Applications in Materials Property Prediction

Abstract

Knowledge of the domain of applicability of a machine learning model is essential to ensuring accurate and reliable model predictions. In this work, we develop a new approach of assessing model domain and demonstrate that our approach provides accurate and meaningful designation of in-domain versus out-of-domain when applied across multiple model types and material property data sets. Our approach assesses the distance between a test and training data point in feature space by using kernel density estimation and shows that this distance provides an effective tool for domain determination. We show that chemical groups considered unrelated based on established chemical knowledge exhibit significant dissimilarities by our measure. We also show that high measures of dissimilarity are associated with poor model performance (i.e., high residual magnitudes) and poor estimates of model uncertainty (i.e., unreliable uncertainty estimation). Automated tools are provided to enable researchers to establish acceptable dissimilarity thresholds to identify whether new predictions of their own machine learning models are in-domain versus out-of-domain.