Abhilash Gogineni, Madhusudana Rao Chintalacheruvu, Ravindra Vitthal Kale
{"title":"Modelling of snow and glacier melt dynamics in a mountainous river basin using integrated SWAT and machine learning approaches","authors":"Abhilash Gogineni, Madhusudana Rao Chintalacheruvu, Ravindra Vitthal Kale","doi":"10.1007/s12145-024-01397-1","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Modelling streamflow in snow-covered mountainous regions with complex hydrology and topography poses a significant challenge, particularly given the pronounced influence of temperature lapse rate (TLAPS) and precipitation lapse rate (PLAPS). The Present study area covers 54,990 km2 in the western Himalayas, including the Tibetan Plateau and the Indian portion of the USRB up to Bhakra Dam in Himachal Pradesh. In order to estimate the snowmelt and rainfall runoff contributions to the catchment, an integrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model incorporates a Temperature Index with an Elevation Band approach. The uncertainty analysis of the SWAT model has been conducted using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm (SUFI-2). Furthermore, machine-learning models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks and Random Forest (RF) are integrated with the SWAT model to enhance the accuracy of streamflow predictions resulting from snowmelt. The performance indices of a model for the monthly calibration period are R2 = 0.83, NSE = 0.82, P-BIAS = 2.3, P-factor = 0.82, and R-factor = 0.81. The corresponding values for the validation period are R^2 = 0.78, NSE = 0.77, P-BIAS = 5.7, P-factor = 0.72 and R-factor = 0.66. The results show that 63.08% of the Bhakra gauging station’s annual streamflow has attributed to snow and glacier melt. The highest snow and glacier melt occur from May to August, while the minimum is observed from November to February. Regarding snowmelt forecasting, the LSTM model outperforms the RF model with an R<sup>2</sup> value of 0.86 and 0.85 during training and testing, respectively. Additionally, sensitivity analysis highlights that soil and groundwater flow parameters, specifically SOL_K, SOL_AWC, and GWQMN, are the most sensitive parameters for streamflow modelling. The study confirms the effectiveness of SWAT for water resource planning and management in the mountainous USRB.</p>","PeriodicalId":49318,"journal":{"name":"Earth Science Informatics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Earth Science Informatics","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-024-01397-1","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Modelling streamflow in snow-covered mountainous regions with complex hydrology and topography poses a significant challenge, particularly given the pronounced influence of temperature lapse rate (TLAPS) and precipitation lapse rate (PLAPS). The Present study area covers 54,990 km2 in the western Himalayas, including the Tibetan Plateau and the Indian portion of the USRB up to Bhakra Dam in Himachal Pradesh. In order to estimate the snowmelt and rainfall runoff contributions to the catchment, an integrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model incorporates a Temperature Index with an Elevation Band approach. The uncertainty analysis of the SWAT model has been conducted using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm (SUFI-2). Furthermore, machine-learning models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks and Random Forest (RF) are integrated with the SWAT model to enhance the accuracy of streamflow predictions resulting from snowmelt. The performance indices of a model for the monthly calibration period are R2 = 0.83, NSE = 0.82, P-BIAS = 2.3, P-factor = 0.82, and R-factor = 0.81. The corresponding values for the validation period are R^2 = 0.78, NSE = 0.77, P-BIAS = 5.7, P-factor = 0.72 and R-factor = 0.66. The results show that 63.08% of the Bhakra gauging station’s annual streamflow has attributed to snow and glacier melt. The highest snow and glacier melt occur from May to August, while the minimum is observed from November to February. Regarding snowmelt forecasting, the LSTM model outperforms the RF model with an R2 value of 0.86 and 0.85 during training and testing, respectively. Additionally, sensitivity analysis highlights that soil and groundwater flow parameters, specifically SOL_K, SOL_AWC, and GWQMN, are the most sensitive parameters for streamflow modelling. The study confirms the effectiveness of SWAT for water resource planning and management in the mountainous USRB.
期刊介绍:
The Earth Science Informatics [ESIN] journal aims at rapid publication of high-quality, current, cutting-edge, and provocative scientific work in the area of Earth Science Informatics as it relates to Earth systems science and space science. This includes articles on the application of formal and computational methods, computational Earth science, spatial and temporal analyses, and all aspects of computer applications to the acquisition, storage, processing, interchange, and visualization of data and information about the materials, properties, processes, features, and phenomena that occur at all scales and locations in the Earth system’s five components (atmosphere, hydrosphere, geosphere, biosphere, cryosphere) and in space (see "About this journal" for more detail). The quarterly journal publishes research, methodology, and software articles, as well as editorials, comments, and book and software reviews. Review articles of relevant findings, topics, and methodologies are also considered.