Modelling of snow and glacier melt dynamics in a mountainous river basin using integrated SWAT and machine learning approaches

IF 2.7 4区 地球科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS
Abhilash Gogineni, Madhusudana Rao Chintalacheruvu, Ravindra Vitthal Kale
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Abstract

Modelling streamflow in snow-covered mountainous regions with complex hydrology and topography poses a significant challenge, particularly given the pronounced influence of temperature lapse rate (TLAPS) and precipitation lapse rate (PLAPS). The Present study area covers 54,990 km2 in the western Himalayas, including the Tibetan Plateau and the Indian portion of the USRB up to Bhakra Dam in Himachal Pradesh. In order to estimate the snowmelt and rainfall runoff contributions to the catchment, an integrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model incorporates a Temperature Index with an Elevation Band approach. The uncertainty analysis of the SWAT model has been conducted using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm (SUFI-2). Furthermore, machine-learning models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks and Random Forest (RF) are integrated with the SWAT model to enhance the accuracy of streamflow predictions resulting from snowmelt. The performance indices of a model for the monthly calibration period are R2 = 0.83, NSE = 0.82, P-BIAS = 2.3, P-factor = 0.82, and R-factor = 0.81. The corresponding values for the validation period are R^2 = 0.78, NSE = 0.77, P-BIAS = 5.7, P-factor = 0.72 and R-factor = 0.66. The results show that 63.08% of the Bhakra gauging station’s annual streamflow has attributed to snow and glacier melt. The highest snow and glacier melt occur from May to August, while the minimum is observed from November to February. Regarding snowmelt forecasting, the LSTM model outperforms the RF model with an R2 value of 0.86 and 0.85 during training and testing, respectively. Additionally, sensitivity analysis highlights that soil and groundwater flow parameters, specifically SOL_K, SOL_AWC, and GWQMN, are the most sensitive parameters for streamflow modelling. The study confirms the effectiveness of SWAT for water resource planning and management in the mountainous USRB.

Abstract Image

利用 SWAT 和机器学习综合方法建立山区河流流域积雪和冰川融化动态模型
在水文和地形复杂的积雪山区建立流场模型是一项重大挑战,特别是考虑到温度变化率 (TLAPS) 和降水变化率 (PLAPS) 的显著影响。目前的研究区域覆盖喜马拉雅山脉西部 54,990 平方公里,包括青藏高原和喜马偕尔邦巴克拉大坝之前的 USRB 印度部分。为了估算集水区的融雪和降雨径流量,水土评估工具 (SWAT) 综合模型采用了温度指数和高程带方法。SWAT 模型的不确定性分析采用了序列不确定性拟合算法 (SUFI-2) 进行。此外,SWAT 模型还集成了机器学习模型,如长短期记忆(LSTM)神经网络和随机森林(RF),以提高融雪导致的溪流预测的准确性。月校核期模型的性能指标为 R2 = 0.83、NSE = 0.82、P-BIAS = 2.3、P 因子 = 0.82 和 R 因子 = 0.81。验证期的相应值为 R^2 = 0.78、NSE = 0.77、P-BIAS = 5.7、P-因子 = 0.72 和 R-因子 = 0.66。结果表明,巴克拉测站 63.08% 的年径流量归因于积雪和冰川融化。5 月至 8 月的积雪和冰川融化量最大,而 11 月至 2 月的积雪和冰川融化量最小。在融雪预测方面,LSTM 模型在训练和测试期间的 R2 值分别为 0.86 和 0.85,优于 RF 模型。此外,敏感性分析表明,土壤和地下水流参数,特别是 SOL_K、SOL_AWC 和 GWQMN,是河水流量建模中最敏感的参数。该研究证实了 SWAT 在美国联邦区域局山区水资源规划和管理方面的有效性。
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来源期刊
Earth Science Informatics
Earth Science Informatics COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
4.60
自引率
3.60%
发文量
157
审稿时长
4.3 months
期刊介绍: The Earth Science Informatics [ESIN] journal aims at rapid publication of high-quality, current, cutting-edge, and provocative scientific work in the area of Earth Science Informatics as it relates to Earth systems science and space science. This includes articles on the application of formal and computational methods, computational Earth science, spatial and temporal analyses, and all aspects of computer applications to the acquisition, storage, processing, interchange, and visualization of data and information about the materials, properties, processes, features, and phenomena that occur at all scales and locations in the Earth system’s five components (atmosphere, hydrosphere, geosphere, biosphere, cryosphere) and in space (see "About this journal" for more detail). The quarterly journal publishes research, methodology, and software articles, as well as editorials, comments, and book and software reviews. Review articles of relevant findings, topics, and methodologies are also considered.
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