Mapping risk of heat stress for dairy cattle in Tigray Regional State, Northern Ethiopia

IF 2.8 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Endale Balcha, Habtamu Taddele Menghistu, Amanuel Zenebe, Birhanu Hadush
{"title":"Mapping risk of heat stress for dairy cattle in Tigray Regional State, Northern Ethiopia","authors":"Endale Balcha, Habtamu Taddele Menghistu, Amanuel Zenebe, Birhanu Hadush","doi":"10.1007/s00704-024-05080-9","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study aimed to assess the risk of heat stress conditions for dairy cattle in the Tigray regional state of Ethiopia under historical and future climatic conditions. The daily thermal heat index (THI) was computed for each of the 14 weather stations after quality control of the maximum and minimum temperature datasets. The calculations were performed for the historical period (1980–2023) and two future climate periods (mid-term: 2040–2069 and end-term: 2070–2099) using an ensemble of 20 global circulation models under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). During the historical period, the frequency of severe heat stress was 3.4% (13 days/year), predominantly occurring in the western corner of the region (39.5% of days/year). The frequency of projected severe heat stress days across the region is expected to increase to 5.4% (mid-term) and 6% (end-term) under the RCP 4.5 emission scenario. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the frequency is expected to rise to 6.2% (mid-term) and 9.4% (end-term). On average, there were 6–9 consecutive severe heat stress days in both the historical and future climate periods. It is crucial to emphasize that the mapping of heat stress risk in dairy cattle was carried out using THI thresholds developed elsewhere. However, it is imperative to underscore the significance of conducting local experiments to determine context-specific thresholds.</p>","PeriodicalId":22945,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05080-9","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study aimed to assess the risk of heat stress conditions for dairy cattle in the Tigray regional state of Ethiopia under historical and future climatic conditions. The daily thermal heat index (THI) was computed for each of the 14 weather stations after quality control of the maximum and minimum temperature datasets. The calculations were performed for the historical period (1980–2023) and two future climate periods (mid-term: 2040–2069 and end-term: 2070–2099) using an ensemble of 20 global circulation models under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). During the historical period, the frequency of severe heat stress was 3.4% (13 days/year), predominantly occurring in the western corner of the region (39.5% of days/year). The frequency of projected severe heat stress days across the region is expected to increase to 5.4% (mid-term) and 6% (end-term) under the RCP 4.5 emission scenario. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the frequency is expected to rise to 6.2% (mid-term) and 9.4% (end-term). On average, there were 6–9 consecutive severe heat stress days in both the historical and future climate periods. It is crucial to emphasize that the mapping of heat stress risk in dairy cattle was carried out using THI thresholds developed elsewhere. However, it is imperative to underscore the significance of conducting local experiments to determine context-specific thresholds.

Abstract Image

绘制埃塞俄比亚北部提格雷州奶牛热应激风险图
本研究旨在评估埃塞俄比亚提格雷地区奶牛在历史和未来气候条件下的热应激风险。在对最高气温和最低气温数据集进行质量控制后,对 14 个气象站的每个气象站计算了每日热指数(THI)。计算针对历史时期(1980-2023 年)和两个未来气候时期(中期:2040-2069 年和末期:2070-2099 年),在两个代表性浓度路径(RCP 4.5 和 8.5)下使用了 20 个全球环流模型集合。在历史时期,严重热应激的频率为 3.4%(13 天/年),主要发生在该地区的西部角落(39.5% 天/年)。在 RCP 4.5 排放情景下,预计整个区域的严重热应激日频率将增至 5.4%(中期)和 6%(末期)。在 RCP 8.5 情景下,预计频率将上升至 6.2%(中期)和 9.4%(末期)。在历史气候期和未来气候期,平均有 6-9 个连续的严重热应激日。需要强调的是,绘制奶牛热应激风险图时使用了其他地方开发的 THI 临界值。然而,必须强调的是,在当地进行试验以确定针对具体情况的阈值具有重要意义。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Theoretical and Applied Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
11.80%
发文量
376
审稿时长
4.3 months
期刊介绍: Theoretical and Applied Climatology covers the following topics: - climate modeling, climatic changes and climate forecasting, micro- to mesoclimate, applied meteorology as in agro- and forestmeteorology, biometeorology, building meteorology and atmospheric radiation problems as they relate to the biosphere - effects of anthropogenic and natural aerosols or gaseous trace constituents - hardware and software elements of meteorological measurements, including techniques of remote sensing
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信